The 2026/27 season has been one of turmoil for Real Madrid already. Kylian Mbappé and Vinicius Júnior still haven’t jelled, leading to rumors that Mbappé could consider demanding an exit from the club next summer. The season is young, but given Barcelona’s impeccable form and the six-point gap already separating the clubs, it’d hardly be unreasonable to consider La Liga effectively settled.
However, Los Blancos care about the Champions League, where they’ve been by far the most successful team in competition history. They will face their second straight Italian side, Roma, on at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) on the road in one of the early marquee matches of the competition.
Madrid is a -105 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and the Giallorossi are +255. A draw is available at +295.
Below, I’ll break down this clash of capitals and provide my favorite bet.
Roma vs. Real Madrid Best Bet:
- AS Roma or Tie (-115): Something clearly isn’t right for Real Madrid, as it’s lost to two supposedly inferior teams on the road. Los Blancos’ defense is out of sync, Vinicius Júnior and Yan Diomandé aren’t meshing with Kylian Mbappé, and the chasm between Madrid and Barcelona has never looked larger. Roma has had a sensational season in Italy, leading Inter on goal difference, and has the tools to pick up a point.
Roma vs. Real Madrid prediction, pick
Roma has had a tremendous start to the season, sitting atop Serie A after six matches on goal difference ahead of Inter Milan in its quest for its first Scudetto since 2000/01. The Giallorossi also picked up a hard-fought draw against Fenerbahçe in their Champions League opener, seeking their first appearance in the knockout stages since they made the Round of 16 in 2018/19. By contrast, Los Blancos have been one of Europe’s biggest disappointments, sitting fourth in the La Liga table with losses to Atlético Madrid and Real Betis, who are both challenging for the top four. Madrid did beat the Nerazzurri at the Bernabeu to start its Champions League campaign on three points, although Brugge’s victory over Inter on Tuesday took some of the shine off of that result. Of course, it’s not too early for José Mourinho’s men to turn it around, but given each club’s expectations entering the season, Los Blancos have been doubtlessly more disappointing.
Roma has a veteran side, and its experience has paid off so far. 32-year-old Paulo Dybala, a Serie A legend in his fifth season with the club, leads the team with four assists, and 2025/26 midseason signing Donyell Malen, entering the prime of his career at 27, has smashed home six goals in six games. A trio of younger players — France midfielder Manu Koné (25), Argentina midfielder Matìas Soulé (23), and Italian midfielder Niccolò Pisilli (22) — have contributed two goals each. All together, the Giallorossi have produced more xG in Serie A than every team but the Nerazzurri, although they managed just 0.48 xG in their opener against Fenerbahçe. Defensively, Roma has also been relatively sharp, allowing the fewest goals, fourth-fewest xG, and third-fewest shots on target while winning a majority of both its ground and aerial duels and forcing the most high turnovers ending with a shot. Its starting trio of Gianluca Mancini, Obita N’Dicka, and Mario Hermoso has started together in the back for two straight seasons before 2026/27, so despite a rough performance against the Turkish outfit, their chemistry should pay dividends. The Giallorossi’s top shot-stopper, Mile Svilar, is out, but backup Pierluigi Gollini has starting experience in his previous stint with Atalanta.
On paper, Real Madrid could have more talent than any other squad in the world. Mbappé has mostly delivered, although seven goals in eight games isn’t an exceptional output by his standards, and 21-year-old Carlos Espi has delivered two goals in just 29 minutes off the bench. However, it’s been a rough season for Vinicius Júnior, who’s managed just one goal and three assists in eight La Liga appearances, as well as for €140 million signing Yan Diomandé. Los Blancos have still had the second-best attack in La Liga by virtually all metrics, but they’ve been significantly worse than Barcelona on that side of the ball. Madrid’s defense has also been pretty gettable; even though Marc Cucurella and Ibrahima Konaté have been solid signings and it’s won both ground and aerial duels at the highest rate of any team in Spain, it’s allowed an average number of shots and shots on target in La Liga. Los Blancos have also made some uncharacteristic errors; they’ve been awful at playing the offsides trap and have been poor at defending against set pieces. Like Roma, Madrid also has one of the world’s best goalkeepers, as Thibaut Courtois has shown no signs of his age, ranking among the La Liga leaders in save percentage even at 33. Courtois, unlike Svilar, is healthy.
This season, Los Blancos have also been pretty mediocre on the road, going just 2-0-2 on unfriendly turf, and I don’t think all that much separates the Giallorossi from Los Colchoneros and Los Verdiblancos, the two teams Real Madrid has lost to away from home already. Roma might not be able to take advantage of Los Blancos’ inability to defend set pieces, since it’s been the worst team in Italy from such situations this season, but its ability to limit high-quality shots and Madrid’s startlingly inefficient finishing (by its standards) should help protect Gollini. At -115, it’s worth backing the Giallorossi to pick up at least a point.
