It’s been awhile since the Dodgers were backed into a corner like this. Needing a win on Wednesday night to avoid going down 3-0 in the NLCS to the Brewers.
Obviously last year’s World Series comes to mind, but Los Angeles was up 2-1 after three games in that matchup with the Blue Jays, before dropping both Game 4 and Game 5 at home. The Dodgers could also rely on a healthy and thriving version of Shohei Ohtani, something that’s certainly more of a question mark in the 2026 postseason.
Will Ohtani and Los Angeles be able to turn things around in Game 3? Or will Milwaukee take full control with another victory? Let’s break down this crucial tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Dodgers pick, best bets today
- Robert Gasser Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (+111): The fact that this is at plus-money is wild. During the regular season, Gasser’s ERA rose to 4.83 after his first trip through an opposing lineup. He’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher with the tendency to give up home runs. I’d expect Pat Murphy to be proactive about removing Gasser at the first sign of trouble, especially with a rested bullpen after the off-day.
- Blake Snell Over 2.5 Walks (+121): It’s a perfect storm. Of any active pitcher with 1,000 career innings, Snell’s 10.8% walk rate is the highest in baseball. As for the Brewers, they led the league in walk rate in 2026 (10.6%) thanks to MLB’s lowest chase rate (29.1%). They aren’t going to do Snell any favors outside of the zone.
Brewers vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Blake Snell was not at his best in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Braves. In fact, it felt like a version of the left-hander that we’d all not seen for a long time. While Snell eventually only surrendered a single earned run in his outing of 3.2 innings, he walked five batters in the process. For some context, the 33-year-old had not issued more than three free passes in an appearance during his truncated regular season campaign in 2026. That was a span of 42.2 innings in which Snell registered his lowest walk rate (9.2%) and his highest K/BB ratio (3.44) since all the way back in 2020 with the Rays — the year he was unceremoniously pulled from Game 6 of the World Series. Ironically, against the Dodgers.
Without the constant issue of walks, Snell was predictably amazing in his nine “tune-up” starts for the playoffs, maintaining a 1.90 ERA and a 1.72 FIP. With a rested arm, his fastball velocity was way up from 2025, sitting at an average of 96.0 mph. He was also limiting opponents to microscopic marks in both barrel rate (2.0%) and hard hit rate (15.8%), which is how Snell’s now gone over 45 innings in 2026 without conceding a home run. You know what? Maybe taking March, April, May and June off is a decent strategy for keeping pitchers fresh for the stretch run of the season. Los Angeles might be on to something here.
This will be a very interesting matchup between Snell and the Brewers. On the one hand, Milwaukee was much better versus right-handed pitching throughout the regular season, posting a league-best 112 wRC+ within that spilt, and just a 97 wRC+ against LHPs, with Brice Turang, Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick all floundering in a left-on-left setting. On the other, the Brewers are easily the most patient lineup in the sport, and if Snell’s command is shaky for a second straight outing, he’ll surely pay the price. Milwaukee’s led MLB with a 10.6% walk rate in 2026, a trend that was backed up immensely by league-low marks in chase rate (29.1%) and swing rate (43.7%). This is a collection of bats that will make Snell be in the strike zone.
The Brewers will send a southpaw of their own to the mound in Game 3, as Robert Gasser will be asked to make his second start of the postseason. The 27-year-old went four innings in his first outing versus the Padres, with his lone mistake ending up as a solo home run to Fernando Tatis Jr. in Game 4 of the NLDS. That’s the major reg flag with Gasser. While the LHP does a good job of maintaining an 82nd percentile opponent hard hit rate (34.0%), Gasser’s 0.74 GB/FB ratio was among the lowest figures in the league for pitchers with at least 100 innings thrown. He’s a soft-tossing, extreme fly ball archetype. That’ll lead to a fair share of long balls for opposing batters.
The other thing to note is Gasser’s splits as he works deeper into games. Gasser didn’t allow a run in his first trip through San Diego’s order in the NLDS, and that was consistent with his results from the regular season. The left-hander owned a 2.54 ERA in opponents’ first look, while that ERA spiked to 4.83 in all subsequent plate appearances. Milwaukee has a seemingly endless supply of rested relief options than can throw multiple frames. I doubt we see Gasser work very long in this tilt — even if the results are perfectly fine.
