Josh Allen Touchdown Scoring Pick for Bills vs. Rams

With just four weeks of the NFL season in the books, it might be too early to look ahead to the Super Bowl, but there are some matchups that appear more likely than others. For instance, the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams have both advanced to at least the divisional round in each of the past two seasons, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that that matchup is the seventh-most likely.

Thus, tonight’s 8:15 p.m. ET Monday Night Football matchup between the Rams and the Bills at SoFi Stadium — coincidentally, the host of the 2027 Super Bowl — is marquee even among primetime games.

In it, the league’s past two MVP’s, Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford (2025) and Buffalo signal-caller Josh Allen (2024) will face off for the first time since 2024, a duel that Stafford narrowly won. Allen will surely be seeking his redemption.

The Bills are 3.5-point underdogs for tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (+145 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 54.5. The Rams are -175 on the Moneyline.

Below, I’ll break down Allen’s touchdown scoring prop bet for tonight’s possible Super Bowl preview.

Josh Allen Touchdown Scoring Prop Bet vs. Rams

Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (-125)

This one is pretty simple; Allen is the greatest touchdown-scoring quarterback in NFL history, with 11 more rushing touchdowns than any other quarterback despite playing just nine seasons so far. He’s registered at least 12 rushing touchdowns in each of the last four seasons, totaling 48 across 55 games in that span and finding the end zone at least once in 32 of those 55. Among games in which he took more than one snap, that ratio improves to 32-for-51 (62.7%, -168 implied odds). He’s posted the third-highest rushing grades among quarterbacks, trailing only Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson.

Quite simply, there may be no more unstoppable play in football than Allen’s quarterback sneak. Allen has accounted for nine of Buffalo’s 21 rushes inside the red zone, the highest share of any non-running back, and he’s scored all six times that he’s carried the ball inside the 10. In general, the Bills, despite passing a slight majority of the time, turn to their run game in the go zone, as 70% of their plays within the 10-yard line have been runs (six Allen passes, eight handoffs to James Cook, and six Allen sneaks). Buffalo makes 4.0 trips to the red zone on average, the fourth-most in the league, so Allen should have plenty of opportunities.

On paper, Los Angeles is a tough matchup, as it’s allowed just 55 rushing yards and one score to opposing quarterbacks and just 408 yards and that one score overall. Per Pro Football Focus’ standards, the Rams have posted the sixth-best run defense grades despite only having Aaron Donald, who ended his two-year retirement to reclaim his place as one of the league’s best defensive tackles, for two games. However, Los Angeles has allowed 12 trips into the red zone in four games, a relatively high rate, and it’s allowed opponents to score on a majority of those trips. Allen had three one-yard rushing scores in that 2024 game and one score when the teams faced off in 2022.