In the Week 5 NFL Monday night matchup, the Buffalo Bills will take on the Los Angeles Rams to close out the week.
Both sides hold legitimate Super Bowl aspirations this season. The Bills have jumped to a 3-1 start, but they’re looking to bounce back from their first loss to the Patriots last week. On the other side, the Rams have slipped to 2-2 but still have their season goals in sight if they can find their form. This will be a notable measuring-stick matchup for both sides.
Looking at the odds, the Rams enter as 3.5-point favorites with -175 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bills hold +145 odds to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 54.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved beyond just backing a side or total. Let’s take a look at my top three favorite player props for the Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup.
Bills at Rams NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football
James Cook III Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
After leading the NFL in rushing yards last year with 1,621 yards, or 95.4 yards per game, James Cook III has been a bit underutilized in the Bills’ offense to start the season. Even still, the three-time Pro Bowler has tallied 70 rush attempts for 421 rushing yards and three touchdowns. He has finished with rushing totals of 57, 135, 154 and 75 yards across the first four games.
Cook is recording an impressive 6.0 yards per carry this season, and he has cleared 130 yards in both games that he saw over 20 carries. This is a matchup he should be expected to get his opportunities with the ball. While Los Angeles ranks eighth in the NFL in opponent points allowed and has given up the fewest total yards in football, the Rams rank 12th in total rushing yards allowed, 13th in net yards per rush attempts and 14th in EPA per rushing play. In contrast, Los Angeles ranks first in total passing yards allowed, first in net yards per pass attempt and third in EPA per pass play.
It has not been an issue of production, but opportunity thus far for Cook. He recorded 75 rushing yards on just 12 carries last week, but it is in Buffalo’s best interest to get him more involved tonight. The Philadelphia Eagles rushed for 104 yards on the ground last week, even after Saquon Barkley suffered an injury on the first drive, and the 49ers gashed Los Angeles for 174 rushing yards in the opener. Josh Allen is the headliner of the offense, but Cook is vital to this team hitting its peak. Expect a focused effort to put the ball in the 27-year-old’s hands and for 75.5 rushing yards to be a comfortable bar to clear for the third time this year.
Tyler Higbee Over 2.5 Receptions (-114)
While Puka Nacua and Davante Adams headline the passing attack for Los Angeles, this Rams offensive system is extremely dependent on tight end production. This is especially the case with both Nacua and Adams already banged up and dealing with some injuries. As Matthew Stafford’s supporting cast has been in and out of the blue tent, Tyler Higbee has established himself as a point of stability in the offensive attack.
Through the opening four games of the season, Higbee has tallied 15 receptions on 19 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown. He has especially come alive these past two weeks. Higbee tallied eight receptions on 11 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos and five receptions on six targets for 67 yards last week against the Eagles over the past two games. Buffalo will not provide the same level of resistance as either of these teams. The Bills enter this week ranked 25th in opponent points allowed, 27th in total yards conceded and 30th in total passing yards surrendered. Buffalo is allowing 5.4 receptions per game to the tight end position thus far.
Los Angeles leans on multiple tight ends in the flow of its offensive attack. While Colby Parkinson will return from injury tonight, Terrance Ferguson remains sidelined, and there is room for each to produce regardless. Don’t expect the personnel change to mean Higbee’s standing in the offense is completely forgotten. Ferguson has just 18 career catches across 17 games played while Parkinson has three receptions on five targets across his three games played this year. Even with the collective pass-catching group getting healthier, Higbee has tallied 17 targets and 13 catches over the past two weeks, and this is a level of volume I cannot fully overlook. Expect Stafford to continue looking his way in key spots over the middle and for Higbee to comfortably clear over 2.5 receptions for the third straight week.
Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+128)
Speaking of the man responsible for getting Higbee the football, this is a great matchup for Stafford to add to his statistical totals. It has been an up-and-down start to the year for the reigning MVP. Through his first four games, Stafford has thrown for 1,189 passing yards, six touchdowns and six interceptions. He struggled greatly in the season opener, being limited to 155 passing yards and an interception against the 49ers. Stafford has thrown for 317+ yards in each of the three games since, throwing for four, two and zero touchdowns while tossing five interceptions across this stretch.
In search of a get-right spot, this Buffalo defense is a great place to look. The Bills have allowed 29+ points in three of their four games this season. They enter this week ranking 25th in points allowed, 27th in total yards conceded, 30th in opponent passing yards, 29th in opponent passing touchdowns and 22nd in net yards per pass attempt. This is especially notable as the Bills currently rank 10th in rushing touchdowns allowed. A struggling Drake Maye ripped off 269 passing yards and three touchdowns last week, and Jared Goff recorded four passing scores against this Bills secondary already this year.
Stafford led the NFL with 46 passing touchdowns last year, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns per game and recording over 2.5 passing scores in nine of his 17 starts. He has still tallied as many as four passing scores in a game this season, and this is among the most favorable of a matchup he could ask for. The 54.5-point game total indicates that we should buckle up for a bit of a shootout in this game. Count on Stafford taking this responsibility upon himself to drive the offense and return to the MVP level that he has proven to be capable of playing at. Expect the matchup with Allen to bring out the best in the Rams star and for three passing scores to be a comfortable bar to clear for the second time this season.
