Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens prediction, pick for NFL Week 5 on Sunday 10/11/26

Michael Penix Jr. returned from his knee injury and revived Kevin Stefanski’s offense. After two miserable losses with Cooper Rush, Atlanta hammered Green Bay and New Orleans on the road. Baltimore arrives at Mercedes-Benz Stadium 3–1, but Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury hands Tyler Huntley an offense whose blockers have struggled to clear running lanes. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Falcons vs. Ravens prediction, preview

Bijan Robinson tore off a 59-yard touchdown on Atlanta’s opening possession Monday. Stefanski and coordinator Tommy Rees have shifted Kyle Pitts and Austin Hooper into fullback alignments and moved receivers across the formation; those changing assignments demand disciplined pursuit. Robinson runs outside zone on roughly 60% of his carries, and Baltimore has conceded gains of at least 10 yards on seven of 40 opposing running-back carries on those runs this season. Anthony Weaver wants firmer edges and defenders pursuing from the backside; Kyle Hamilton may need to join them against Atlanta’s heavy formations.

Hamilton and Roquan Smith also have the range to recover into coverage after run fakes. Penix has averaged a magnificent 10.6 yards per attempt on 45 throws since returning; Baltimore’s coverage changes should make him reconsider some of those quick decisions. Drake London remains his principal target, and Trey Hendrickson’s absence weakens the rush pursuing Penix. Atlanta’s left tackle Jake Matthews remains questionable with a groin injury despite returning to full practice Friday. Near the goal line, I’d trust Robinson against those run fits, although Hamilton and Smith should contest more of Penix’s throws.

Derrick Henry needs considerably more help than he’s gotten to this point. He has ground through 49 carries for just 162 yards over the last two games; Atlanta has surrendered a stingy 3.1 yards per running-back carry this season. Rookie Vega Ioane, pushed over from guard after Baltimore lost three centers to injured reserve, makes his second start at center. Newly acquired Cam Jurgens cannot debut yet, and guard Andrew Vorhees remains questionable. At Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET redout, with John Abraham’s Ring of Honor induction at halftime, Ioane has to manage a silent count against Atlanta’s disruptive front.

Ravens vs. Falcons pick, best bet

Declan Doyle ought to attack Atlanta’s weakened edges. Za’Darius Smith is out, Samson Ebukam remains questionable, and Huntley can force a defender to choose between him and Henry on option runs. Doyle can send Mark Andrews up the seams against Atlanta’s single-high coverage, with Huntley throwing shorter to Zay Flowers, expected to play despite his foot injury. Harold Perkins has earned more nickel work and broke up a Juwan Johnson out route Monday.

Huntley completed eight of nine passes against Tennessee, yet his five possessions yielded four punts and a missed field goal while protecting a substantial lead. Cameron Thomas has supplied power off Atlanta’s edges despite the injuries elsewhere. Henry’s struggles threaten another evening of long passing downs, and I doubt Huntley finishes enough of those drives with touchdowns. I’ll lay three.

Best bet: Falcons -3 (-120).

Projected score: Falcons 24, Ravens 17.

Best Bet: Falcons -3 (-120) vs. Ravens