The National League Championship Series gets underway on Sunday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Milwaukee Brewers for the second straight season. Has the Brew Crew closed the gap enough to make this a close series, or are the Dodgers inevitable as they chase their third straight World Series title? The NLCS will answer those questions, with Game 1 starting at 8:00 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into the matchup and take a look at my top three best bets from the player prop market on DraftKings Sportsbook.
In the larger picture, the Brewers are slight home favorites at -113 on the Moneyline, but the Dodgers are getting 61% of the bets on the Moneyline as of Sunday afternoon. The over/under is just 6.0 runs, since it’s an incredible pitching matchup between Tarik Skubal for the Dodgers and Jacob Misiorowski for the Brewers.
For each Major League Baseball matchup, DraftKings Sportsbook has a wide variety of batter and pitcher props on the board, so let’s take a look at my top plays from this Game 1 Dodgers-Brewers matchup on Sunday night.
Dodgers at Brewers Prop Bets for Sunday 10/11/26
Jacob Misiorowski under 6.5 Hits + Walks + Earned Runs (-121)
Misiorowski has come a long way since he was working behind an opener in last year’s NLCS. The NL Cy Young favorite put together an impressive 16-5 record with a 1.80 ERA and 2.17 FIP. He faced the Dodgers in mid-August, working six innings and allowing just one run on five hits.
The Miz worked 174 2/3 innings, which was a huge increase from his 66 MLB innings after joining the Brewers midseason last year. The team managed his workload carefully down the stretch, but he was still very effective when he was in the game.
While his strikeout prop is intriguing as well, I prefer to take the under on his hits, walks and earned runs allowed since an earlier exit helps him hit the under in this prop. Especially with a well-rested bullpen available, the Brewers could have a quick hook with him in Game 1. Against the Padres in the NLDS, Misiorowski worked four innings with six strikeouts, allowing seven hits, walks and earned runs.
Before that outing against San Diego, Misiorowski had come in under this prop line in four straight starts and six of his last seven. He was especially sharp at home this season, with just a 1.52 home ERA and a 0.77 WHIP against him. While he may not be able to go extremely deep in the game, his dominant upside should help him come in under this total in what should be an exciting pitching matchup.
Tarik Skubal over 4.5 hits allowed (+100)
Skubal will oppose Misiorowski in this exciting matchup, but he’ll have a tough matchup against the Brewers offense, which comes in with much better form than they showed last year, when the Dodgers rolled over them in the NLCS. Skubal gave up just two hits in his start in the NLDS against the Braves, and he has been under this prop line in three of his last four starts, which is why the Brewers only need to get five hits against him to earn the green in this prop.
Skubal faced the Brewers twice in the regular season, allowing six runs (five earned) on 14 hits in 12 innings. He did have 12 strikeouts in those 12 innings, but he gave up plenty of hits. Over his last 10 starts, he has averaged 5.0 hits allowed per outing.
The Brewers hit .250 as a team in the NLDS against the Padres, picking up 33 hits in those four games (8.3 hits per game). William Contreras (six hits) led the way, while Christian Yelich had five hits, followed by Garrett Mitchell and Cooper Pratt, who each had four hits.
Skubal is definitely a big-game pitcher and has the potential to dominate, but even if he’s effective, the Brewers can scratch together at least five hits, making this prop a nice value at +100.
Jackson Chourio 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+103)
Chourio went 3-for-16 (.188) in the four games against the Padres, but he had multiple HRR (hits, runs and RBI) in three of his four games. He totaled six RBIs in the four games, and he will be on the strong side of all his splits in Game 1.
In his career, Chourio is 3-for-9 (.333) against Skubal with a double and three strikeouts. He also hit .333 against lefties this season, with a .413 wOBA. He was also especially strong at home at American Family Field, where he hit .313 with a .402 wOBA on the season.
Even though he’s only 22, Chourio has already proven he is a big-game performer, and he’s my favorite hitter prop to attack in Sunday’s Game 1. He and the Brewers will look to make a statement that this year will be different as they look to get a win in this awesome Game 1 matchup.
