Homecoming weekend will see rain and wind cut at cruel angles at the tailgates this morning. Indeed—weather will impact many games. But the spirit? Doubtful. A little weather only dampens jackets and the long passing game, not the ancient and glorious verve to a weekend so beloved as this. Hollywood’s made billions this century trying to get Matt Damon to come home, you know what I’m saying? It’s archetypally important. And everywhere you look this weekend, you’ll see kings and queens, athletic and academic promise, hearth and home, flames new and old. It’s, arguably, the greatest celebration of the liminal season whence autumn hardens itself for the winter to come with food, football, holidays. And it’s hard to ask for a slate of college football better than the one ahead of us today. These are the ones we work for.
Below is my full betting slip for today, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of all of these publishing throughout the day for more in-depth analysis. This is both a comprehensive round-up and an at-a-glance preview. Why just be one thing when you can be both? Just as homecoming weekend is slated to be both glorious and muddy. Let’s see some green, shall we?
Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all preseason and fantasy draft kit content—as well as plenty of NFL betting goodies—all season long.
Dan Johnson’s full Week 6 College Football betslip
12:00 p.m.
Arizona at West Virginia
Best bet: Arizona -3 (-118) | Stake: 1u
Arizona travel to Morgantown without their three starting receivers, but Noah Fifita has already found Isaiah Mizell, Brandon Phelps and Tyler Powell, averaging a useful 7.7 yards per attempt against Cincinnati. West Virginia’s poor fits and coverage should give those replacements chances to sustain drives. Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook make laying points on the road uncomfortable, having rushed for 149 and 142 yards at Iowa State. Arizona just limited Cincinnati to 74 rushing yards, though, and rotate 17 front-seven players to share the tackling. Hawkins completed only 11 of 23 passes last week. Arizona’s depleted receiving corps and 15 sacks allowed through five games limit me to 1U; I trust Fifita to finish more drives once Hawkins has to throw.
Projected score: Arizona 31, West Virginia 24.
UCF at Oklahoma State
Best bet: Oklahoma State -10.5 (-112) | Stake: 2u
Eric Morris brought Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins and Wyatt Young from North Texas, and they’re already doing splendid damage together. At West Virginia, Hawkins ran for 180 yards while Young caught eight passes for 192 yards; Mestemaker threw for 389 yards. UCF must stop that combination without linebacker Lewis Carter, then protect Keyone Jenkins without either of their top two centers. Duke Watson’s lively 8.2 yards per carry on 49 attempts gives the Knights a way to answer, especially after West Virginia ran for 335 yards against Oklahoma State. UCF stopped Houston twice on fourth down and recovered a fumble inside their 10, concealing how often they let the Cougars get there. Mestemaker and Hawkins should turn more of those visits into touchdowns.
Projected score: Oklahoma State 34, UCF 20.
North Carolina at Pittsburgh
Best bet: Pittsburgh -3.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Holden Geriner’s first career start demands a smaller stake after Mason Heintschel’s season-ending ACL injury. Pittsburgh can help him by running Ja’Kyrian Turner, who returned for 65 yards on 14 carries last week, at defenders who surrendered 166 second-half rushing yards to Notre Dame. The Panthers have allowed a stingy 55.6 rushing yards per game through five games. Billy Edwards Jr. can still move North Carolina through the air: he directed a 98-yard touchdown drive last week, with Jordan Shipp catching seven passes for 109 yards. Pittsburgh just allowed Virginia Tech to throw for 434 yards. Edwards has to finish those possessions, though; the Tar Heels have scored touchdowns on only five of 13 red-zone visits. Turner should give Geriner more manageable downs.
Projected score: Pittsburgh 27, North Carolina 20.
12:45 p.m.
South Carolina at Florida
Best bet: South Carolina +10.5 (-105) | Stake: 1u
LaNorris Sellers ran for consecutive first downs and threw for another on South Carolina’s 75-yard opening touchdown drive against Kentucky. That worries me more than his long scramble: he can move the Gamecocks a few first downs at a time. Florida should score through Jadan Baugh and Dallas Wilson, especially if Buster Faulkner spreads out a secondary that has surrendered 12 touchdown passes in three SEC losses. Julian Walker and Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy are out up front, although South Carolina’s stingy 3.8 yards allowed per carry in conference play should force some punts. A sold-out Swamp for homecoming should complicate Sellers’ communication without center Carter Miller. Six drops last week make his passing less dependable, too. His running earns my 1U wager on the visitors.
Projected score: Florida 34, South Carolina 27.
3:30 p.m.
Duke at Georgia Tech
Best bet: Duke -6.5 (-115) | Stake: 1u
Nate Sheppard has battered defenses for 7.1 yards per carry on 91 attempts this season; the Jackets now face him without Jordan Walker, Noah Carter or A.J. Hoffler up front. If the Jackets crowd his runs, Duke can find Jeremiah Hasley off play-action. The Jackets still limited Stanford to 2.3 yards per carry, and Kyle Efford’s probable return strengthens that front. Reck Day at Bobby Dodd and forecast rain and wind hold me to 1U. Justice Haynes has posted consecutive 100-yard games, but Alberto Mendoza faces Duke’s pressure behind a line missing Ethan Mackenny, with Jameson Riggs questionable. Six holding penalties spoiled Tech’s work at Stanford; they’ve finished only seven of 15 red-zone trips with touchdowns. Duke should make them labor for those final yards again.
Projected score: Duke 24, Georgia Tech 13.
Virginia Tech at California
Best bet: Virginia Tech -10 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 434 yards against Pittsburgh even as the Panthers smothered Jeffrey Overton Jr. Cal’s defenders, yielding a dreadful 5.4 yards per carry against four FBS opponents, should give Overton far more room. His running ought to spare Grunkemeyer some passing downs after Tech committed four turnovers last week. Justin Terry’s absence from the line and Cal’s homecoming hold me to 1U. Pat McCann takes over the Bears’ play-calling with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele questionable. Jackson Brousseau nearly rescued the UNLV game, aided by a kickoff recovery. But Cal’s paltry 2.9 yards per carry against four FBS opponents leave either quarterback throwing to sustain their possessions, inviting Tech’s pass rush.
Projected score: Virginia Tech 34, California 20.
Houston at Kansas State
Best bet: Over 55.5 (-102) | Stake: 1u
Houston wasted three trips inside UCF’s 10, losing two fourth downs and a fumble before Conner Weigman rallied them. Re’Shaun Sanford II and Makhi Hughes should carry them into scoring position again against a smaller Kansas State front that let Cincinnati rush for 271 yards. Houston have surrendered only five sacks through five games, which should give Weigman time to find Amare Thomas and Patrick Overmyer. Avery Johnson faces a much stouter rushing defense, allowing just 2.6 yards per carry, but his own running complicates those assignments. Derrick Salley Jr. supplies a downfield target when Houston crowd the run. Houston’s goal-line failures temper my stake. Weigman has the protection to sustain drives; Johnson has the legs to disrupt even Houston’s sturdy run fits.
Projected score: Kansas State 31, Houston 27.
Stanford at Notre Dame
Best bet: Over 54.5 (-110) | Stake: 2u
Notre Dame can do most of the scoring here. Jonaz Walton ran for 120 yards on 23 carries at North Carolina, and Jordan Faison caught eight passes for 132 yards; CJ Carr now gets to attack defenders who just lost 57–3 to Wake Forest. Stanford have allowed touchdowns on an appalling 20 of 23 red-zone visits. Walton can run at that poor tackling, with Faison giving Carr another way downfield. Davis Warren’s 136 passing yards on 30 attempts last week hardly promise much resistance against an Irish defense allowing only 2.0 yards per carry through five games. But Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa is out and Leonard Moore remains questionable. Stanford should find some scoring chances while Carr and Walton repeatedly punish their tackling.
Projected score: Notre Dame 51, Stanford 10.
4:15 p.m.
Tennessee at Arkansas
Best bet: Tennessee -13.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u
DeSean Bishop is a wonderful teammate for a quarterback making his first start: he battered Auburn for 220 yards on 34 carries, and Arkansas just allowed four rushing touchdowns at Texas A&M. George MacIntyre replaces the injured Faizon Brandon after completing eight of ten passes against Auburn, including a 42-yard gain to Mike Matthews. Fayetteville’s noise and a change at left guard still make me reluctant to go beyond 1U. KJ Jackson has fewer ways to answer, targeting Chris Marshall on more than half his throws in last week’s 34–7 defeat. Arkansas even reached the Aggies’ one-yard line before losing yards on fourth down. Jackson Ross pinned Auburn inside their 11 on five of six punts; forcing Jackson to drive that far should help Tennessee separate.
Projected score: Tennessee 31, Arkansas 13.
Maryland at Ohio State
Best bet: Ohio State -33.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
Julian Sayin is averaging a sparkling 10.8 yards per attempt through five games, while Jeremiah Smith has delivered consecutive 200-yard receiving afternoons. Maryland arrive for Ohio State’s homecoming without defensive lineman Lavon Johnson, having allowed touchdowns on 11 of 13 red-zone visits. Smith should punish Maryland downfield, while the depleted front offers less help near the goal line. The Terps have 14 sacks through five games and can disrupt those deeper throws; I’m limiting my stake against such a large spread. Maryland’s offense gives me more confidence in the margin. They converted a dreadful one of 14 third downs at Nebraska and scored nothing after halftime. Chris Durr Jr. can make catches, but the Terps have struggled to turn that passing into sustained scoring.
Projected score: Ohio State 49, Maryland 10.
6:00 p.m.
San Diego State at Oregon State
Best bet: Oregon State -16.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
Braden Atkinson threw five touchdowns at Colorado State, finding Jesse Legree for three and Eric Olsen for two. The Beavers have finished 16 of 21 red-zone visits with touchdowns through five games; Legree stretches coverage, while Olsen gives Atkinson a target near the goal line. San Diego State’s comeback against Texas State relied on a kickoff return, a pick-six and short fields. Their offense converted only one of ten third downs, and Jayden Denegal is averaging a meager 5.8 yards per attempt this season. Four offensive-line combinations in five games hardly help him sustain drives, and Nate Acevedo remains doubtful. Lucky Sutton and Javion Kinnard could return against a defense that allowed 188 rushing yards last week, so I’m holding this to 1U.
Projected score: Oregon State 38, San Diego State 17.
