It’s all on the line for the defending champions. Golden State’s vaunted defense put the screws on Vegas in Ballhalla, winning the first two home games and putting the Aces on the brink. Now Las Vegas has to defend at home to keep their season alive; can the Aces play the right cards? Or will the Valkyries soar to a historic Finals appearance?
The Aces enter as 3.5-point home favorites with -180 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Valkyries are +150 underdogs, with the game total set at 156.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Aces-Valkyries matchup.
Valkyries vs. Aces Preview
Defense, defense, defense. It’s been the Valkyries’ story all season, as they led the WNBA in defensive rating, opponent PPG, steals, and opponent field goal percentage. That hasn’t changed in this postseason run, as they’ve won all four games in which they allowed fewer than 100 points. Las Vegas was held to a season-low 60 points in the series opener, and though the offense improved in Game 2, it wasn’t enough to overcome the Valks.
Gabby Williams has been leading the Valkyries’ success. Before joining Golden State, Williams made five playoff trips as a member of the Sky and the Storm. Incredibly, the Aces eliminated her in four of those playoff runs, so it’s fair to say this matchup is personal. She’s poured in a lot of revenge through two games, posting a 25/11/5 line in Game 1, then following up with 20/5/3 line in Game 2. Golden State’s offense has often bogged down against this strong Las Vegas defense, and Williams has kept them alive with timely buckets.
What Golden State could sure use is more offense from Veronica Burton. Arguably its most important offensive player because of her playmaking, VB’s scoring has dropped off a cliff in this series. She has 12 total points on 2-of-9 shooting, while providing only four assists. Life isn’t easy when Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young are hounding her while A’ja Wilson is waiting in help, but the Valkyries need more from her, plain and simple. On the bright side, the one shot she hit in Game 2 was as big as you could ask for.
Las Vegas’ problems are much heavier. After losing NaLyssa Smith for the season, the Aces’ rotation got wonky as they searched for a competent fifth starter. Those problems have only grown during this series. Head coach Becky Hammon used eight players besides Wilson, Young, and Gray in Game 2; most failed to make an impact. Stephanie Talbot hit some key shots, and Kalani Brown’s size made a difference, but the rest of the team was forgettable. That has to improve, or Las Vegas’ season will end prematurely.
What the Aces also desperately need is more effort on the boards and better ball security. Las Vegas got destroyed on the glass in Game 1, and though it put in a better effort in Game 2, it still lost the battle on the glass. Golden State has turned the ball over often, but the Aces’ turnovers have been particularly devastating. In crucial moments, when Golden State’s offense scuffled, they gave the Valkyries easy transition chances. All series long, they’ve struggled with the full-court press, a tough indictment for a team with Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young bringing the ball up the floor.
Burton and Young are the X-factors here. Both guards have struggled to score in this series while guarding each other frequently. If one of them breaks out, it’s a tremendously bad sign for their opponent. If both keep struggling, it’ll come down to A’ja Wilson and Gabby Williams trading buckets for their teams while the defenses slug it out.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Valkyries vs. Aces Pick, Best Bet
It’s awfully difficult to imagine the Aces getting swept in a semifinal series. But so far, they haven’t answered the questions the Valkyries have asked. Golden State has ticked every box by setting the tone defensively, winning the possession battle, and thoroughly outclassing the Aces’ bench lineups. It wouldn’t surprise me to see A’ja carry her team to a season-extending win, but I’ll take the better team on the road.
