Missouri smothered Jadan Baugh for 13 yards on 12 carries, leaving Aaron Philo to salvage far too many possessions on third-and-long. Florida had scored 44 points at Auburn and 52 against Ole Miss before that miserable afternoon. With Baugh and Dallas Wilson back at a sold-out Swamp for homecoming, I’m eager to see how Buster Faulkner answers. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Florida Gators and the South Carolina Gamecocks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Florida vs. South Carolina prediction, preview
South Carolina has allowed only 3.8 yards per carry in three SEC games, and Dylan Stewart returns from suspension. Faulkner will have to throw earlier, while his players have to stop spoiling completions with penalties. An illegal-formation flag erased a 21-yard gain at Missouri; two plays later, Philo faced third-and-14. Between the stalled runs and those flags, Florida asked too much of a quarterback averaging a meager 5.8 yards per attempt.
Wilson caught a 24-yard pass on third-and-13 there. I’d love to see Philo find him on first down, when a short completion would give Faulkner more freedom to call Baugh’s next run. Kentucky spread South Carolina out after halftime, and Clayton White acknowledged that his defenders struggled with the extra space. Faulkner should spread his receivers out and let Philo work underneath, especially with forecast gusts reaching 26 mph. Vernell Brown III remains questionable with a knee injury; Wilson will face a secondary that has surrendered 12 touchdown passes in three conference defeats. White must also replace Julian Walker and Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy up front.
On South Carolina’s opening drive against Kentucky, LaNorris Sellers ran for consecutive first downs, then found Mazeo Bennett Jr. for 27 yards before Matthew Fuller scored from six yards. They covered 75 yards that way, with Sellers moving the chains on the ground and through the air. Brad White has to correct the poor pursuit and missed assignment he blamed for Missouri’s long runs, then get his defenders to finish tackles against a quarterback he compared to Saquon Barkley.
South Carolina vs. Florida pick, best bet
Even when Jayden Woods beats his blocker, he’ll have to account for Sellers’ escape; Kentucky let him scramble for 74 yards on third-and-11. Fuller managed only 49 yards on 14 carries against Kentucky, and center Carter Miller’s absence likely sends Nolan Hay back to center. Hay has played there already, although the homecoming noise should complicate his calls with Sellers. With Bennett cleared, Kendal Briles can work shorter throws into those running drives. Beamer counted six drops last week, so Sellers still needs his receivers to finish the play.
Florida has finished an imposing 21 of 26 red-zone visits with touchdowns through five games. I expect Baugh and Wilson to finish enough drives to win, with South Carolina’s run defense forcing some punts along the way. Sellers should earn scoring chances, too; Malik Orsan has made seven of eight field-goal attempts, although the wind discourages longer kicks. A changing line and those drops should cost South Carolina some drives; with Sellers able to extend others himself, I want the 10.5.
Best bet: South Carolina +10.5 (-105).
Projected score: Florida 34, South Carolina 27.
Best Bet: South Carolina +10.5 (-105) at Florida
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