Pitt escaped Virginia Tech at 5–0, but Mason Heintschel’s torn ACL ended his season. Holden Geriner makes his first career start Saturday at Acrisure Stadium. North Carolina arrives at 2–2 after consecutive losses, with Billy Edwards Jr. throwing more productively and Bill Belichick’s defense struggling to survive the second half. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Pitt Panthers and the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Pitt vs. UNC prediction, preview
Edwards sustained a 98-yard touchdown drive against Notre Dame; Jordan Shipp caught seven passes for a career-best 109 yards that afternoon. Jaden Jefferson’s kickoff-return touchdown and a late offensive score also helped UNC reach 26. I’m encouraged by the passing, though the score flatters its consistency. Pitt just allowed Ethan Grunkemeyer 434 passing yards, repeatedly losing receivers downfield. Edwards expects quarters coverage. New coordinator Bobby Petrino ought to call early throws to Shipp and shorter routes for Jelani Thurman against pressure.
Petrino’s backs ran well at Clemson, then bogged down against Notre Dame. Benjamin Hall, Jaylen McGill and Demon June managed a miserable 64 yards on 20 carries Saturday. Pitt has conceded a stingy 55.6 rushing yards per game through five games, fitting gaps and tackling well. Petrino blended two transfers with three returning starters up front. Left tackle Jordan Hall remains questionable after his absence against Notre Dame required Cristian Alvarez to start. Pitt can pressure Edwards after failed runs; his two interceptions Saturday helped Notre Dame seize control between UNC’s touchdown drives.
Ja’Kyrian Turner should receive more work against UNC’s tiring front. He returned from a three-game absence Friday and ran for 65 yards on 14 carries, including a 20-yard touchdown. Kade Bell should call runs for Turner and Damon Ferguson Jr. behind veterans Ryan Baer and BJ Williams on the right. UNC needs their linebackers to finish those tackles. Notre Dame wore them down with 166 rushing yards after halftime Saturday. Nose tackle Isaiah Johnson and edge rusher Jaylen Harvey are questionable, further threatening Belichick’s rotation. Longer Pitt possessions would also reduce Edwards’ chances to answer.
UNC vs. Pitt pick, best bet
UNC’s safeties may have to help tackle Turner. Geriner already found Cataurus Hicks for a 29-yard touchdown Friday, but the Texas State transfer had attempted only 21 college passes before this season. Bell ought to call quick throws against extra rushers and send Hicks deeper when a safety advances. Xavier Lewis can disrupt Geriner inside; UNC still failed to sack CJ Carr Saturday. Virginia Tech also handed Pitt 14 points through four turnovers.
Turner and Ferguson should help Pitt finish three drives with touchdowns. UNC has conceded touchdowns on just five of 13 red-zone visits this season, though; Antonio Chadha should finish two other possessions with field goals. Edwards should throw two touchdowns through Shipp and Thurman. Pitt’s front can strand two other drives near the goal line, forcing field goals. Failed runs and hurried throws should cost Edwards possessions along the way. His downfield throws threaten a close finish, but I expect Pitt’s backs to produce the extra touchdown. I’ll lay 3.5.
Best bet: Pitt -3.5 (-112).
Projected score: Pitt 27, North Carolina 20.
Best Bet: Pitt -3.5 (-110) vs. UNC
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