Eric Morris brought Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins and Wyatt Young from North Texas to Stillwater, importing an established offense into a roster with 91 newcomers. The Cowboys have won three straight since losing their opener to Tulsa. Scott Frost takes a battered, 3–2 UCF team west after Houston erased their 17–0 lead. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the UCF Knights.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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OSU vs. UCF prediction, preview
Hawkins carried 31 times for 180 yards at West Virginia, while Mestemaker needed only 27 throws for 389 yards. UCF has allowed a stingy 3.2 YPC through five games, but is again without linebacker Lewis Carter; his replacement, Jayden Jennings, is questionable. Their safeties cannot charge toward Hawkins indiscriminately: Young caught eight passes for 192 yards in that game. He remains questionable, although Morris says he practiced all week and expects him to play. Morris should run Hawkins at the replacement linebackers, then send Young deeper when defenders move toward the run.
Mestemaker’s five interceptions in four games worry me against UCF’s veteran defensive backs, who have snatched six through five games. Isaiah Nixon needs to hurry him from the edge; Oklahoma State has surrendered only three sacks through four games. Left guard Johnny Dickson III is questionable, so Morris may need to rearrange the protection. Near the goal line, the Knights twice stopped Houston on fourth down and forced a fumble. Houston nevertheless reached those spots on three consecutive possessions. UCF defended the last few yards superbly; they still allowed the Cougars to travel most of the field.
Frost should test Oklahoma State on the ground with Duke Watson. The Louisville transfer averages an imposing 8.2 YPC on 49 carries, and West Virginia pounded the Cowboys for 335 rushing yards on 66 attempts. The Mountaineers led into the third quarter. Watson’s 37-yard burst at Houston helped finish UCF’s second touchdown drive, but his other eight carries gained only 13 yards. With centers Owen Spell and Jacob Maiava out, Cooper Terpstra or Connor Meadows must handle the interior assignments. Frost needs reliable gains between Watson’s breakaways, especially as the replacements sort out their blocks.
UCF vs. OSU pick, best bet
Keyone Jenkins starts again with Alonza Barnett III out. His opening 49-yard completion to Josh Derry at Houston launched a touchdown drive, yet UCF never crossed midfield after building that three-score lead. Frost ought to call shorter throws to Derry on early downs and involve Jenkins as a runner when Watson stalls. Oklahoma State has held opposing passers to 56.1% completions through four games. Longer passing downs favor the Cowboys, whose defense ended West Virginia’s final four possessions with three fourth-down stops and a punt.
Watson and Jenkins should finish two touchdown drives; I expect Oklahoma State to force punts and field goals when UCF has to throw on third-and-long. UCF’s goal-line defense should also force Sam Keltner into action—he has made all 10 field-goal attempts—but Hawkins offers Oklahoma State a stronger rushing complement to their downfield throws. Four Cowboy touchdowns and two field goals look attainable. I’ll lay the’ 10.5.
Best bet: Oklahoma State -10.5 (-112).
Projected score: Oklahoma State 34, UCF 20.
Best Bet: Oklahoma State -10.5 (-110) vs. UCF
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