Rich Rodriguez watched West Virginia score on four straight possessions at Iowa State and still lose. The Mountaineers return to Morgantown at 3–2, winless in conference play. Arizona has won three straight, but Brent Brennan takes his 4–1 team east without all three starting receivers and tight end Cole Rusk. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Arizona Wildcats.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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WVU vs. Arizona prediction, preview
Noah Fifita already answered some of that injury trouble against Cincinnati. He escaped the rush and found Isaiah Mizell for 36 yards, then threw a 24-yard touchdown to Brandon Phelps. Tyler Powell caught five passes for 40 yards and another score. With Rusk out, Powell has to offer Fifita those shorter throws when Zac Alley sends linebackers. Mizell can stretch the secondary farther downfield. Fifita averaged 7.7 yards per attempt Saturday despite losing receivers during the first half. Those replacements get a secondary that has conceded 701 passing yards across two conference defeats.
Alley wants fewer assignments and better fits against inside zone. His defenders have surrendered 485 rushing yards in those same losses; Seth Doege ought to give his backs early carries. Quincy Craig gained 77 yards on seven carries against Cincinnati, and Antwan Roberts broke a 58-yarder. Brennan praised the replacement receivers’ blocking, too. Kedrick Reescano needed 21 carries for just 57 yards, though. Fifita will still have to convert third downs through the air. Arizona’s blockers have surrendered 15 sacks through five games, and Alley’s blitzers can force Fifita to hurry throws to his young receivers.
Michael Hawkins Jr. can make Arizona’s blitzers regret chasing him. He ran for 149 yards at Iowa State, where Cam Cook added 142 on 20 carries. Rodriguez’s linemen hurry into position while defenders are still arranging themselves. Danny Gonzales needs a defender watching Hawkins when he sends pressure. Hawkins has already escaped would-be sacks; another rusher charging past him can open a running lane.
Arizona vs. WVU pick, best bet
Gonzales has enough linemen to rotate against that tempo. The Wildcats held Cincinnati to 74 rushing yards, almost 200 below its entering average, and used 17 defensive linemen and linebackers. Cook has worn opponents down after halftime. Hawkins threw for 227 yards Saturday but completed only 11 of 23 passes. DJ Epps caught a 47-yard touchdown to put West Virginia ahead. Gonzales needs safety help over Epps, even as Hawkins’ runs demand another tackler near the line.
I expect Cook and Hawkins to run for around two touchdowns, with Epps helping finish another touchdown drive. Arizona’s pressure should force punts when West Virginia needs intermediate completions; Hawkins hasn’t consistently supplied those throws. One stalled possession should produce a field goal. Fifita and Arizona’s backs can finish four touchdown drives against Alley’s struggling fits and coverage. Alley’s rush can still force a field goal from Michael Salgado-Medina, who made both attempts Saturday. The depleted receiving corps tempers my forecast to 31–24. I’ll lay three.
Best bet: Arizona -3 (-118).
Projected score: Arizona 31, West Virginia 24.
Best Bet: Arizona -3 (-120) at WVU
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