Saturday night in Las Vegas, Nevada, at the Meta Apex, No. 4 Brendan Allen faces No. 10 Christian Leroy Duncan in the Main Event of this week’s UFC Fight Night. The event features five fights on the Main Card and seven on the Prelims. The Prelims begin at 5:00 p.m. ET and continue with the Main Card at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night event.
Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
- Christian Leroy Duncan Moneyline (+105): Although Christian Leroy Duncan’s resume isn’t currently on the same level as Brendan Allen’s, his elite striking should give him an advantage in this matchup. CLD is on a five-fight winning streak and hasn’t lost in over 25 months.
- Malcolm Wellmaker to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+110): Although the once-elite prospect Malcolm Wellmaker hasn’t won a fight in nearly 16 months, he remains a skilled striker with eight career finishes.
- Felipe Franco to Win in Rounds 1-2 (-185): Felipe Franco has 11 finishes in the first two rounds and should be able to extend his winning streak against Brendson Ribeiro, who has lost four straight.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Best Bets Breakdown
Christian Leroy Duncan Moneyline (+105)
Christian Leroy Duncan is on a phenomenal run, winning five straight fights, most recently beating former title challenger Jared Cannonier. He is 7-1 in his previous eight contests, with his lone loss in that span coming against Gregory Rodrigues.
Leroy Duncan now takes on Brendan Allen, who has won three straight fights in the last 15 months.
Both fighters stand 6’2″, with Leroy Duncan having a four-inch reach advantage (79″ vs. 74″). In this fight, Leroy Duncan possesses knockout power (10 knockouts) while Allen is an elite submission specialist (14 submissions). Even when CLD has been taken down in the past, he has done a good job of getting back to his feet quickly. Allen averages 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 41 percent takedown accuracy. Recently, Allen has been striking more often as he has recorded one or fewer takedowns in four of his previous five contests.
On the feet, Leroy Duncan has the clear advantage in significant strikes per minute (4.45 vs. 3.75), striking accuracy (57% vs. 52%) and strikes absorbed per minute (2.36 vs. 3.78). If Allen tries to stand and strike with Leroy Duncan, he will likely struggle a ton. With a big reach advantage, Leroy Duncan has the physical tools to keep Allen from closing the distance and getting into a rhythm. Getting Leroy Duncan to win at +105 on DraftKings Sportsbook is an excellent value play.
Malcolm Wellmaker to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+110)
After back-to-back losses, Malcolm Wellmaker made a big change by joining American Top Team. Wellmaker began his UFC career with two straight first-round knockouts, but has since lost to Ethyn Ewing and Juan Diaz. Saturday night, Wellmaker faces Otari Tanzilovi in hopes of turning things around. Including his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series, Tanzilovi is 0-2 under the UFC banner.
A big part of Wellmaker’s game he must improve is his takedown defense. Diaz scored five takedowns in two rounds against Wellmaker in his last fight. Wellmaker also needs to be more aggressive from the start to keep Tanzilovi from attempting takedowns. In this bout, Wellmaker is a -225 favorite, while Tanzilovi is a +185 underdog.
Wellmaker appears in good spirits since moving to Florida. If he comes out confident with a high volume of punches, an impressive victory is possible. Wellmaker’s previous four wins have come by knockout, and eight of his 10 MMA victories have come by finish. That is why I’m taking Wellmaker at +110 to win by submission or knockout.
Felipe Franco to Win in Rounds 1-2 (-185)
This card features a Light Heavyweight bout between Felipe Franco and Brendson Ribeiro. Franco, 25, is 11-2 with 11 finishes and is coming off his first UFC win against Levi Rodrigues Jr. in July. Ribeiro has a 17-11 record with 16 finishes but is in the midst of a four-fight losing streak.
In this bout, Ribeiro has a four-inch reach advantage (81″ vs. 77″) and is two inches taller (6’3″ vs. 6’1″). Franco is more versatile than Ribeiro, with skills on the feet and on the ground. Although Ribeiro averages 0.39 more significant strikes per minute, Franco is more accurate (57% vs. 40%) and absorbs fewer strikes per minute (2.39 vs. 3.56). On the ground, Franco lands 3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 40 percent rate, while Ribeiro has only a 32 percent takedown defense.
If we see the same version of Franco that appeared against Rodrigues, another quick finish is very possible against Ribeiro. Since Franco is a -355 favorite, I’m taking him to win in the first two rounds, which is -185 on DraftKings Sportsbook. All 11 of Franco’s MMA wins have come in Rounds 1-2.
