Last season, Aston Villa was a surprise entry into the top four of the Premier League standings. This year, Brentford is the surprise, with no defeats in their first five matches. Will the Bees keep up their high-flying form in this match? Or will the Villans get back on track?
Brentford are slight +160 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a draw at +255. Aston Villa’s moneyline is set at +165.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this game.
Aston Villa vs. Brentford Prediction, Pick
Aston Villa’s start to the season has been tricky. After securing a Champions League berth last season, the club took the influx of cash and transformed a lot of the team. So far, results have been mixed. The defense has been bad, as this back line adjusts to key departures, most notably star goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez. Zion Suzuki has stepped into his role admirably, but it’s going to take some adjusting. Other than Matteo Ruggeri, nobody is truly pulling their weight on the back line, and they need more out of veteran center backs Victor Lindelof and Tyrone Mings.
But the attack does look promising, and that starts with Johan Manzambi. The Swiss international has made a roaring debut with Villa after a summer transfer and looks to be their answer to replacing Morgan Rogers in the interim. Manzambi has produced the most shots per 90 and xG+xA per 90 of any Villa player, and thrives out of a deep midfield role. If their top four can produce more consistent results in front of him, Manzambi is going to take a superstar turn.
Brentford’s start has been much, much stronger than Villa’s. The Bees are taking another step forward with a 4-3-0 start between the Premier League and the EFL Cup. Not only are the results there, but the underlying metrics love Brentford; in terms of xG differential, Brentford are second behind Arsenal, with Manchester City trailing just behind. Perhaps it’s time for their long-awaited push into the top of the table.
It has been a top-to-bottom effort to have this start, but there are some standouts. Kevin Schade and Igor Thiago have become the stars to anchor a dangerous top four, producing lots of goals and big chances early in the season. Vitaly Janelt continues to be dynamic in center midfield, leading the team in total defensive contributions while providing key linkup passing. Kristoffer Ajer continues to be a metronome in central defense, but young Jannik Schuster might end up being the star of this back line by year’s end.
It’ll be interesting to see who gets on the front foot in this match. Villa and Brentford are 13th and 14th, respectively, in average possession time. Both teams are comfortable playing out of the back, but someone will have to take charge of possession.
A big problem for Villa here is their inability to execute on long balls. They’re dead last in accurate long balls per match and accurate crosses per match, severely hampering their attack. If Brentford commands the possession, they’ll be willing to take risks knowing that Villa doesn’t have the wide area threats to take advantage on counterattacks.
Ultimately, Villa’s inability to play comfortably out of different game scripts makes things difficult. Brentford have shown a lot of adaptability this season, and that will be the difference in a tight matchup. I’ll take the shot on the Bees to take all three points.
