Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers prediction, pick for NFL Week 5 on Sunday 10/11/26

The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Denver Broncos on Sunday, still trying to snag their first win of the 2026 regular season. As for the Broncos, they are 2-0 at home, but 0-2 on the road, entering this AFC West showdown at SoFi Stadium.

Denver is a 3.5-point road favorite on Sunday at -185 moneyline odds, while Los Angeles has +154 moneyline odds. The game total is set at 41.5 points.

Here is a preview of the Week 5 showdown featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Broncos vs. Chargers prediction, preview

The Mike McDaniel offense has not produced as expected so far this season, with Justin Herbert putting up career-worst numbers across the board. The Chargers’ franchise quarterback is completing just 59.7% of his passes for 204.0 yards per game, with a 70.6 passer rating and a 28.0 QBR. Despite boasting the lowest interception rate in the NFL in 2024, Herbert already has six picks through four games – plus his 12 sacks and four fumbles. And after losing starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater to injury in Week 4, it’s hard to imagine Herbert’s protection getting any better.

Pro Bowl safety Derwin James is also banged up on the other side of the ball, having already missed Week 4 himself. The Chargers defense ranks No. 11 in estimated points allowed per play, so pretty solid given the circumstances. The steady parade of giveaways has LA’s opponents starting at their 39-yard line on average, though, which is the worst in the NFL. Compound that with the Chargers’ offense boasting the worst starting field position of any team in the league, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. Los Angeles also ranks No. 31 in EPA per play on offense, only ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Denver actually has a few wins under its belt, but it has run into plenty of offensive issues, as well. Bo Nix’s 60.0% completion percentage, 204.8 passing yards per game, 3.7% touchdown rate, 2.2% interception rate, 80.4 passer rating and 46.1 QBR are all career-lows. The Broncos’ rushing offense also ranks No. 29 in yards per game and No. 26 in yards per carry, not getting much out of either RJ Harvey or J.K. Dobbins. As a result, head coach Sean Payton just yanked play-calling duties away from offensive coordinator Davis Webb.

After allowing the third-fewest points per game in the NFL last season, the Broncos scoring defense now ranks No. 18. They also dropped from No. 7 to No. 22 in EPA allowed per play. Denver allowing an 81.3 passer rating slots it in at No. 5 in the league in that category, but All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II and last year’s NFL leader in pass deflections, Riley Moss, are both dealing with injuries.

Broncos vs. Chargers pick, best bet

The Broncos lost the first two times they visited SoFi Stadium in the Jim Harbaugh era, but this is clearly a very different Chargers team. Los Angeles has failed to cover in seven straight, too, so it is falling short of expectations in several ways. Denver, meanwhile, has at least shown up at home, covering and winning outright in both contests at Mile High Stadium. But unfortunately for the Broncos, this game is not at home. They have lost and failed to cover in both of their road games, versus Kansas City and San Francisco.

Those teams are Super Bowl contenders, while the Chargers are not. The Broncos, who have had the toughest schedule in the NFL so far this season per PFF, have one of the 10 easiest from here on out. Los Angeles, with all of its injuries and constant mistakes, makes for a pretty forgiving matchup on paper.

I think Payton’s play-calling shake-up will give the Broncos offense a higher floor, and while losing two top corners isn’t ideal, the Chargers haven’t shown enough to make me confident that Herbert will take full advantage. Denver ranks No. 6 in blitz rate, after all, so a depleted Los Angeles O-line could struggle to keep Herbert’s jersey clean Sunday afternoon.

Predicted Score: Broncos 23, Chargers 17

Best Bet: Broncos -3.5 (-108)