When healthy in recent seasons, J.K. Dobbins has been a standout runner who can pick up chunk gains in a hurry with his efficiency. However, he’s yet to pay off his ADP in fantasy yet this year, which has plenty of managers ready to cut bait and drop him for a waiver pickup. After four weeks, one could say that it’s time to move on.
Is it time to drop J.K. Dobbins in fantasy for a waiver pickup, or is he worth holding onto for one more week?
Is it time to drop J.K. Dobbins?
It’s totally, completely fair to start considering a move like dropping Dobbins. Through the first four weeks of the season, he’s the RB46 overall and averages a meager 5.2 FPPG in PPR formats. It’s a far cry from what he did last season, when he wound up as the RB43 overall after missing seven games but finished just on the borderline of RB2 status with 11.6 FPPG, per-game production that was good for 26th at the position.
Last year’s numbers are what fantasy managers drafted Dobbins for. He ranked sixth in rushing yards per game with 77.2 for a strong Broncos offense, doing so at an efficient clip of 5.05 YPC that placed him seventh among all halfbacks. Not only that, but he was breaking big runs at a regular rate, falling seventh in explosive rush rate at 14.6%. His season was unfortunately cut short by an untimely injury, but when he was active, he put up some very solid numbers and was certainly a start-worthy player in fantasy even despite scoring just four touchdowns and lacking much of a passing-downs role.
Now, though, Dobbins is healthy – or so we believe – but has failed to perform this season. He’s recorded just 161 rushing yards without a touchdown across four performances, tallying somewhere between 36 and 49 yards in each contest. His efficiency has cratered to only 3.50 YPC, which ranks 36th in the NFL, while his explosive rate of 4.9% comes in at 37th. Now, Dobbins has still seen solid volume with 11.5 rush attempts per game, with 1.3 attempts from inside the 10-yard line. It just hasn’t translated to real numbers yet.
The question becomes whether he can turn his season around. Frankly, some of the decline may not be entirely his own fault. New play-caller Davis Webb hasn’t done a great job taking over those duties from Sean Payton. For what it’s worth, Dobbins is picking up just 1.35 yards before contact on average, a big decline from last year’s mark of 2.78 that could point to some offensive line woes in addition to some poor gap decisions or a downturn in athleticism. Still, these aren’t reasons to panic yet.
The question you should ask yourself is this. If you saw one of your leaguemates drop Dobbins, what would you think to yourself? Personally, I’d be saying something along the lines of, “ooh, free starting running back” and proceed to put in a claim.
The early going hasn’t been kind to Dobbins, and frankly, I understand that time is of the essence since we’re already into Week 5. The season is flying by and the playoff pecking order is beginning to shake out in fantasy leagues, so sometimes you have to make tough decisions to save a season. However, dropping Dobbins likely isn’t one of those.
He’s still seeing double-digit carries and remains atop the depth chart as the Broncos’ first choice in the rushing attack. He’s also faced four tough run defenses after playing the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams and 49ers, which does help contextualize the lack of counting stats. Could Dobbins bounce back to deliver real value in fantasy lineups? We’ve seen him do so before, and if Sean Payton eventually reclaims play-calling duties, the outlook would certainly improve. Since the running back is likely a better talent with a more stable role than any of the fodder on the waiver wire, don’t drop him just yet.
