Michael Penix Jr. Passing Yards Pick for Falcons vs. Saints

Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons will close out the Week 4 NFL slate in a Monday Night matchup against the New Orleans Saints.

The winner will join the Carolina Panthers in the top spot in the NFC South with a 2-2 record. The division finished in a three-way tie at 8-9 last year, so every matchup carries some significant weight.

Looking at the odds for the MNF matchup, the Saints enter as 1.5-point favorites with -120 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Falcons are +100 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at O/U 47.5 points.

There are plenty of ways to get involved across DraftKings Sportsbook. You can check out the game preview and plenty more on DraftKings Network. But for now, here’s my top Michael Penix Jr. prop bet for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup.

Michael Penix Jr. Passing Yards Pick vs. Saints

Michael Penix Jr. Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-112)

The Atlanta Falcons had an ugly start to the season at quarterback. Cooper Rush started the first two weeks, while Jack Strand spent some time under center. But Michael Penix Jr. returned last week and completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown in Atlanta’s 35-14 win over the Packers.

While it has been a rocky start to his NFL career, Penix Jr. has the arm and willingness to push the ball downfield needed to raise the floor of this Falcons’ attack. Compared to the limited arm strength seen in other quarterback options, such as Strand, Rush, and Tua Tagovailoa, Penix Jr. is a night-and-day difference under center. This is a dynamic skill position group for Atlanta, headlined by Bijan Robinson and Drake London. Penix has plenty of options to get the ball to his playmakers and let them rake up yards.

This is also a friendly matchup to build off his passing production against a vulnerable Saints defense. New Orleans enters this matchup ranking 28th in opponent points allowed and 20th in total yards conceded. New Orleans allowed 206 passing yards to Jared Goff, 235 to Lamar Jackson, and 248 to Kirk Cousins.

Sometimes to a fault, Penix Jr. is willing to take chances downfield and big-play risks. He tallied 256 in his first game back and averaged 220.2 passing yards per game across nine starts last year. Excluding the game he left injured, Penix Jr. averaged 225.9 passing yards per game, throwing for as many as 313 yards in a matchup. Penix Jr. has cleared 225.5 yards in six of his 13 games as a starter, and his production last week was extremely encouraging.

The Saints have gotten off to a hot start offensively, averaging 27 points per game. To keep this matchup competitive, the Falcons will need to move the ball and score at a high rate. There will be some poor decisions during the game, but the threat of a big play on any given pass attempt makes this an extremely tolerable prop line. Count on Penix Jr. to air it out against a vulnerable defense and clear 225.5 passing yards for the second straight week.