So far, the 2025 NFL quarterback class hasn’t looked great. First overall pick Cam Ward has been one of the worst signal-callers in the league for the 0-4 Tennessee Titans in his second season, New York Giants passer Jaxson Dart’s star leap was cut short by a Week 2 knee injury, and Shedeur Sanders was usurped as the Cleveland Browns’ starter by a returning Deshaun Watson.
For now, the only bona fide franchise quarterback from the 2025 Draft seems to be the New Orleans Saints’ Tyler Shough, who leads the league in first downs and success rate and trails only the Carolina Panthers’ Bryce Young in passing yards per game.
Tonight, Shough will have another opportunity to showcase his talent on the national stage when the Saints host the Atlanta Falcons for an 8:15 p.m. ET Monday Night Football clash.
New Orleans is a 1.5-point favorite for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook (-120 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 47.5. Atlanta is +100 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ve detailed my favorite Shough-centered prop bet for those looking to get in on the action.
Best Tyler Shough Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Tyler Shough 270+ Passing Yards (+109)
After throwing for 410 yards on a career-high 56 passing attempts in the Saints’ season-opening 31-30 overtime loss to the Detroit Lions, Shough narrowly fell short of this prop in each of New Orleans’ next two games, recording 252 in a win over the Baltimore Ravens and 255 in a Week 3 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. He’s highly unlikely to drop back 56 times tonight, given that he’d maxed out at 49 in his rookie campaign, but he’s no stranger to big yardage totals, putting up at least 270 four times in nine starts as a rookie and 259 in his lone game against the Falcons.
By basically all metrics, Shough has dramatically improved since last season. He’s nearly doubled his touchdown percentage from 3.1% last season to 6.1% so far in 2026, both his passer rating and QBR have increased considerably, and he’s averaged 89.0 more yards per game while taking fewer sacks. In 2025, Pro Football Focus considered him the 19th-best quarterback in football; this season, he ranks 11th. This season, Shough ranks second in on-target percentage and a solid 14th in completion percentage over expectation. He’s earned head coach Kellen Moore’s trust, as New Orleans ranks sixth in passing play percentage.
I trust Shough to impart damage against the Atlanta’s defense. This season, Jeff Ulbrich’s unit has been spectacular against the run, limiting opponents to the fewest yards per attempt and yards per game and ranking second by Expected Points added, and with Travis Etienne Jr. injured, the Saints don’t have the rushing game to challenge the Falcons anyway. However, Atlanta has been much more gettable through the air, as despite holding opponents to the third-lowest completion percentage, it’s given up the third-most yards per game. One of the Falcons’ starting corners, Mike Hughes, ranks seventh-to-last by PFF’s coverage grades, so Chris Olave, who leads the league in receiving yards per game, should continue to thrive.
