New Orleans might spend all Monday night demanding replacement linebackers chase Bijan Robinson up and down the field. With Kaden Elliss out and Pete Werner questionable after missing every practice, Stefanski & co. should keep calling the outside-zone runs that already make up 59.1% of Bijan’s carries. The Saints have surrendered 5.0 YPC across 33 such runs, ranking last in defensive success rate against them. Robinson’s primed for a big one here, and Atlanta can take advantage of a Saints team banged up in all the places the Falcons best exploit. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Saints vs. Falcons prediction, preview
Michael Penix faces the NFL’s most frequent Cover 3 defense in his second start back from the ACL injury. New Orleans calls it on 56% of coverage snaps; over 114 dropbacks since 2025, Penix has punished those looks for an excellent 9.19 YPA. Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings will miss the game, further depleting the rush trying to reach him. Drake London drew half the first reads in Penix’s return; across their ten starts together since 2025, he has averaged a superb 100.4 receiving YPG. Look for that connection to continue against this weakened New Orleans pass rush.
When Tyler Shough drops back, we should all be watching his left tackle. Asim Richards, filling in for the ultra-talented Kelvin Banks, surrendered six pressures last week in next-man-up duty; Atlanta arrives, somehow, with an NFL-leading 44.2% pressure rate, even though they lost plenty of defensive heat in the offseason to injuries and this and that. Shough combats the rush well enough to rank ninth in YPA under pressure (7.3), but his 21.7% pressure-to-sack rate, 26th, keeps costing New Orleans downs and field position. That’s a dangerous game to play against these Falcons, and it could mean Shough gets his team into trouble more than once.
Give Shough time, though, and Chris Olave can devastate a secondary still missing A.J. Terrell. Atlanta has conceded the second-most receiving YPG to outside WRs (157.3), and Olave has flourished against their preferred Cover 3/4, producing 3.43 YPRR across 56 routes this season. Those are super high-tech jetfighter type numbers, there. I expect him to make multiple plays to move New Orleans downfield. Atlanta’s secondary, however, has nevertheless restricted opponents to 1.59 points/drive, fifth-fewest, with the league’s second-best defensive success rate.
Falcons vs. Saints pick, best bet
Divine Deablo and Samson Ebukam remain questionable, although Ebukam returned to full practice Saturday. A game without both would weaken my confidence in Atlanta’s defense, particularly with Olave already primed to nuke in this matchup as he is. I’ll take the Falcons +1.5. Bijan will keep winning on early downs, and all Penix will have to do is to finish enough possessions through London and Pitts. Shough’s cool throws under pressure means a Saints rally is, of course, plausible; the ticket’s integrity rests entirely on my belief that the Falcons defense will get the big, timely, ones-that-matter sacks in big moments.
Best bet: Falcons +1.5 (-105)
Projected score: Falcons 27, Saints 23
