To close out the Week 4 NFL slate, the Atlanta Falcons will face the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.
Both teams hold 1-2 records to start the season, and this is a matchup that could play a major role in the final standings. The NFC South is a competitive division that ended in a three-way tie last season with 8-9 as the best record. The Carolina Panthers ultimately got into the postseason due to tiebreakers, and they are also currently in the top spot in the division with a 2-2 record. Whichever team wins tonight will climb to tied for first place in the divisional race.
Looking at the odds, the Saints enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites with -120 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Falcons are +100 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 47.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved beyond just backing a side or total. Let’s take a look at my top three favorite player props for the Week 4 Monday Night Football matchup.
Falcons vs. Saints NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football
Tyler Shough Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-127)
There was plenty of buzz about the outlook for Tyler Shough coming into the season, and the second-year quarterback has lived up to it. Through three games, Shough has completed 68.9% of his passes for 917 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions, while adding 67 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Shough threw three touchdown passes against the Lions in Week 1, one against the Ravens in Week 2 and four against the Raiders in Week 3.
Expect New Orleans to lean on the passing game in a major way in tonight’s matchup. Atlanta has a much stronger rushing defense compared to their ability to stop the pass, and the Saints’ game plan will surely reflect this. Through the opening three games, Atlanta leads the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed, ranks first in EPA per rush play, and first in net yards per rush attempt. However, they rank 30th in total passing yards and 14th in EPA per pass play. Add in that Travis Etienne Jr. was placed on IR this week due to a hamstring injury, expect the identity of the Saints’ attack to be built around the passing game tonight.
New Orleans has not been shy in allowing Shough to let it fly so far this year, as he has attempted 56, 34, and 42 passing attempts through the opening three games. Atlanta allowed two passing touchdowns to Jordan Love and the Packers last week and three passing touchdowns to Bryce Young and the Panthers in Week 2, although Aaron Rodgers was limited to one passing score in the season opener. Given how the Falcons’ defense matches up and the willingness that the Saints have shown to let Shough sling it, expect a pair of passing touchdowns to be a comfortable bar for him to clear tonight.
Drake London Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
There has never been much of a question surrounding the talent level of Drake London, but there have been some major issues in getting him the football consistently. It was an ugly start to the season under center, with Cooper Rush serving as the primary starter and Jack Stand seeing some time through the first two weeks. But former 8th overall pick Michael Penix Jr. was inserted into the starting lineup last week and completed 18 of his 25 pass attempts for 256 passing yards and a touchdown. Penix Jr. still has lots to improve, but his arm talent and willingness to let it fly raised the floor of competence for the overall offense in a major way and resulted in the team’s first win.
London was among the biggest beneficiaries of this, recording nine receptions on 10 targets for 194 yards through the air. No other member of the team saw more than three targets or recorded more than two receptions. The trend of Penix Jr. targeting London at a high rate dates back to before this season. Across the 15 games that the two have shared the field, London has tallied 100 receptions for 1,480 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. This comes out to 6.67 receptions for 98.7 yards per game on average.
While London was limited to 29 and 51 receiving yards in the opening two games, the outlook should be viewed entirely differently with Penix Jr. under center. This is especially the case with New Orleans having an exploitable defense through the air. Through their first three games, the Saints rank 28th in opponents’ points allowed, 20th in total yards allowed, 14th in passing yards allowed, and 24th in passing touchdowns conceded. Count on Penix Jr. airing it out for the Falcons’ star wide receiver at a high rate, and for 80.5 receiving yards to be a comfortable bar to clear. While the 194 yards he tallied last week may not be quite sustainable, count on the 80.5 line to be far too low and don’t be afraid to explore some alternate lines, such as 100+ yards through the air at +160 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brian Robinson Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
It is easy to get completely caught up in Bijan Robinson’s production when looking at the Falcons’ backfield. The two-time Pro Bowler has generated 467 total yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns already this season, and led the entire league in scrimmage yards last year. But there is room for production for another Robinson in the backfield, as Brian Robinson has tallied 30 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown himself this season. He is coming off back-to-back games with 10+ carries and has tallied over 30.5 rushing yards in all three games, including 50+ in back-to-back matchups.
The outlook for the entire running game benefits from Penix Jr.’s ability to air the ball out and make opponents respect the deep ball. Running lanes had gotten crowded over the first two weeks with Rush on the field. But the ability to spread the ball down the field has effects all across the roster. Both Robinsons are capable of breaking off big runs, but Brian Robinson especially made this difference clear. Nearly 14% of Robinson’s runs went for 10 or more yards last week.
This should carry over to this matchup, with New Orleans being vulnerable against the run. Through the first three weeks, the Saints rank 26th in rushing yards allowed, 26th in net yards per rush attempt, and 26th in rushing touchdowns conceded. New Orleans is allowing 4.7 yards per carry so far this season. Expect Bijan Robinson to continue leading the production, but there to be room for both running backs to produce. Count on the former Commanders and 49ers standout to make the most of his opportunities against the vulnerable defense and record over 30.5 rushing yards for the fourth straight game tonight.
