The outlook for the New York Jets’ backfield has shifted significantly heading into Week 4 against the Bears. Breece Hall ($6,200) has officially been ruled out due to a thigh injury he is battling. This leaves Braelon Allen ($5,200) to climb to the front of the offensive pecking order at running back, and it could be more than a one-week issue for Hall.
Through the opening three games, Hall has headlined the production at the running back position by a comfortable margin. The Iowa State product has tallied 51 rush attempts for 163 yards and a touchdown, while adding 10 receptions for 102 yards. His 15.2 FPTS per game average on DraftKings scoring currently ranks 13th among all running backs. Hall is playing 57.5% of the offensive snaps on the season, and has peaked at as many as 64.9% in a game.
Braelon Allen Fantasy Value
In comparison, Allen has been fairly limited in his opportunities. Through his first three games, he has tallied 19 rushing attempts for 61 yards and a touchdown, along with four catches for 11 yards. Allen is averaging 40.6% of the offensive snaps, with last week’s 51.5% being the high mark on the season. From a fantasy football perspective, Allen has generated just 17.2 FPTS, which ranks 40th among running backs.
It is worth noting that another name will be involved in the backfield attack, as Isaiah Davis has drawn quite a bit of praise from head coach Aaron Glenn. Davis has dressed for all three of New York’s games this season, though it is worth noting that yet’s yet to play a snap or garner a rushing attempt. Still, this is a Jets’ attack that is heavily built upon involving the running back in the passing game, and expect Davis to play a part in this.
But Allen has always flashed greater talent than he has been able to put on display. Across his rookie season, he showed some impressive bursts with 482 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns while playing in a limited role. There was some momentum building toward Allen making a real run at cutting into Hall’s role entering last year, but a season-ending MCL injury prevented this from being the case.
Allen has some pop with the ball in his hands, and has always teased to be a player capable of more than he has been able to show. This will be his opportunity to prove this is the case, and attempt to cement a more permanent long-term role on this New York offense. The Jets will be facing off with the Bears this week, which is largely a favorable outlook for Allen and the rest of the offense.
Through the opening three weeks, Chicago ranks 15th in total yards allowed and has been most vulnerable against opponents’ rushing attack. They rank 22nd in rushing yards allowed, 18th in rushing touchdowns conceded, and 31st in net yards per rush attempt. Saquon Barkley rushed for 82 yards on 15 carries against them last week, Aaron Jones tallied 105 yards on the ground in Week 2, and the Panthers’ rushing attack gashed the Bears for a collective 125 yards led by Chuba Hubbard’s effort in the opener.
The Bottom Line
The Jets hold a 1-2 record on the season but have plenty to hold their heads high about. There are more legitimate reasons for belief and the beginnings of a legitimate identity starting to form in New York. This is a pivotal matchup to ensure they remain on track for the season, against a Bears team that is likely to be without Caleb Williams. Expect a focus to control the pace of play, and for Allen to play a major part in this throughout.
Opportunity is the greatest indicator of production, and there is a clear path to Allen recording at least 15 touches in this Week 4 matchup. He has the talent to turn these into impactful offense and expect this to play itself out. Given the injury history and landlocked role on the team due to Hall being in front of him on the depth chart, expect no one to be more eager to capitalize on the additional chances to make his mark this week than Allen himself.
The 22-year-old is capable of breaking a game changing run at any moment and should be looked at as a clear RB2 and FLEX option for this Week 4 matchup. His usage this week will tell us a lot about his standing in the offense moving forward, but this feels like an opportune time for Allen to produce a career-best game. If you took a swing on Allen in the later rounds of your draft, this is a week where you can reap the benefits.
