Thirteen targets for Garrett Wilson sounds about right to me. Geno Smith kept returning to him against Detroit, Wilson hauled in 10/107/1, and New York still lost despite Smith missing only six of 37 throws. With Chicago playing man on 38.8% of snaps, third-most, I’d happily let those two keep challenging the corners. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Chicago Bears and the New York Jets.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Bears vs. Jets prediction, preview
Wilson has shredded man for 4.06 YPRR through his first 17 routes. Chicago have just held Jalen Hurts and Carson Wentz to a combined 296 scoreless passing yards, though, and Smith’s receivers keep disappearing from the lineup. Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor remain out; Kenyon Sadiq’s questionable back could cost Smith the receiver who broke loose for 7/105/1 last week. I want Wilson getting plenty of those first looks, particularly if Sadiq sits.
Braelon Allen stayed on the field when New York needed to throw against Detroit. Every remaining snap after Breece Hall’s injury went to Allen, through two fourth-quarter possessions with the Jets trailing. On 71.4% of those dropbacks he ran a route, a substantial receiving assignment for a back who also owns six of New York’s 14 backfield red-zone opportunities. With Hall out Sunday, I’m buying the receiving role along with the carries.
Chicago have conceded an ugly 2.95 adjusted YBC/ATT, second-most in the league, although Allen will run behind a line missing guard Dylan Parham. Isaiah Davis figures to take some work, too. Chicago also surrender 38.0 receiving YPG to backs, sixth-most; Allen’s late work against Detroit suggests he’ll get chances to attack that weakness.
Jets vs. Bears pick, best bet
D’Andre Swift has cleared his knee designation, and I’d be asking him for another busy afternoon. Chicago reportedly turn to Tyson Bagent with Caleb Williams out, while left tackle Braxton Jones will also miss Sunday. Swift has been the reliable part of all this, producing 88-plus scrimmage yards in every game while handling at least 19 touches. Against a New York front surrendering 2.41 adjusted YBC/ATT, seventh-most, he should find running room again.
On a late third down, I trust Smith to find Wilson against man more than I trust Bagent behind replacement protection. Swift can still run Chicago to a narrow win. I have the Bears by a point, 24–23, and I’m taking New York +3.5.
Best bet: Jets +3.5 (-108)
Projected score: Bears 24, Jets 23
