Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 4

Recognize you not the beast we’ve created? It’s the month of franken-constructions, spiritually and spookily, and indeed, I’m staring at a team—starters and bench included—that is perhaps 20% source material from the actual draft, and 80% crudely-attached appendages like Rocket Sanders, Tyquan Thornton, Ted Hurst III, and Kenyon Sadiq. Victor Frankenstein was a boob in Shelley’s novel and even more so in Guillermo Del Toro’s adaptation (Oscar Isaac played him so well!), but I find myself channeling his scientific ambition to make gorgeous, cohesive monster out of the fractured limbs (not here referring, of course, to the 3,476 season-ending injuries through three weeks of the season) of fantasy production. I do not remember an October which—beyond the teams who drafted Gibbs and Ken Walker, or whatever—the entire fantasy board was so ripe for the taking, if only you’re sharp and willing to take ugly risks.

Happy Fantasy Friday once more—and happy season of shadows to all, now that the calendar’s turned to October. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 4 edition. Franken-lineup edition. May we maintain our humanity during this monstrous time.

For the newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start wide receivers for fantasy football Week 4. Here are my other offerings in this edition:

• Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 4
• Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 4 (TK)
• Top five fantasy football players to stash ahead of NFL Week 4 (TK)
• Top five fantasy defenses to start for NFL Week 4 (TK)

All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.

Fantasy football Week 4: Top five wide receivers to start

Josh Downs, IND (vs. Commanders [London])

Daniel Jones keeps whiffing on a receiver who keeps separating. Downs leads all NFL WRs with at least 70 routes in average separation score, but Dimes has delivered a catchable ball on just 67% of his targets. I think we’re all planning to starting Downs through that frustration. Indianapolis has finally expanded his role considerably in the early going here. Five catches for 77 yards against Houston was his latest box score, and what’s underneath the hood is so much better.

Downs commanded 11 targets and 172 total air yards Sunday; across the past two games, he cleared both an 80% route share and a 30% target share. At a career-high 10.9 aDOT this season, he’s attacking considerably more ground than the familiar underneath-slot description suggests. His 41.1% air-yard share is 13th among qualifying WRs in the NFL.

Washington’s scheme should keep Jones throwing to our man Downs. The Commanders blitz at the league’s second-highest rate, and Downs has produced 2.73 YPRR when Jones is blitzed. Mike Sainristil played 83% of his snaps in the slot last week and allows an NFL-worst 0.44 fantasy points per coverage route. Washington’s low aggregate slot-yardage allowance interests me less than where Sainristil lines up now. Feels like the entire fantasy universe is counting Downs to separate again; Jones will finish more of these throws this week.

Michael Wilson, ARI (at Giants)

I’m well past treating Michael Wilson as the receiver who fills in until Marvin Harrison Jr. figures things out, and it’s mostly by virtue of Wilson’s glaringly-elite production profile amidst the denoument of Marv in the desert. Jacoby Brissett has targeted Wilson 31 times this season, and looked to Harrison nine. Even across Wilson’s last eight games alongside Harrison, he’s drawn 22% of Arizona’s targets and accumulated WR18 usage by XFP, even higher in PPR leagues.

Last Sunday stretched that advantage to 17 targets, although Arizona needed 81 plays and 52 pass attempts to get there. We shouldn’t need another frantic comeback to start him, but that’s always in Arizona’s bag. Wilson separated on fourth-down slants, caught screens, and scored on a play-action throw to the flat; Arizona keeps finding him at different depths and in different personnel groupings. He’s a monster.

The Giants play Cover 1 or Cover 3 on 48.6% of defensive dropbacks. Against those looks, Wilson commanded a target on 39% of his 51 routes and averaged 2.27 YPRR. Trey McBride will consume plenty of Brissett’s attention underneath, as usual, but Wilson’s back to being WR1 alongside McBride crushing. I like him as a WR2 whose short-area volume can survive a quieter afternoon from the Cardinals’ offense.

Luther Burden III, CHI (vs. Jets)

Ben Johnson kept putting Burden first in the progression Monday, and Case Keenum kept making the throw. Ten of Burden’s 11 targets came on first reads; he caught seven for 61 yards and a TD. I’d just bet Johnson’s got a Sunday gameplan for whichever QB starts that involves short throws for a receiver as physical after the catch as Burden is.

The Jets align two safeties high on 65.4% of opposing dropbacks, fifth-most, and Burden commanded targets on 36% of his routes against those shells last week. His current 0.79 YPRR against two-high looks ugly, but he averaged 1.88 last season. Johnson wants to use him as a safety valve for his interim signal-callers.

Kalif Raymond still takes snaps in two-WR sets, limiting Burden to a 76% route share Monday. I’d love it if it were Burden out there in eleven personnel, but it’s not necessary. He already leads Chicago in first-read share (32.8%) and red-zone targets (six). Johnson seeks him out underneath and calls his number near the goal line. A switch to Tyson Bagent wouldn’t temper my expectations for another double-digit target afternoon. With Keenum executing so well, too, I’d push Burden toward the top of the WR2 tier.

Christian Watson, GB (at Buccaneers)

I’m all-in on the Packers rebound performance at the Bucs this week. And, while, I’m hesitant to project two receivers as must-starts, I almost put Matthew Golden here, too. But, to be honest—I don’t want to get so busy predicting touchdown regression that I bench a receiver earning 18.4 PPR XFP/G. Watson has scored in all three games, yes, and Jordan Love keeps throwing to him between the touchdowns, too. He draws 24% of Green Bay’s targets. Against Atlanta, he caught seven of 10 for 96 yards and another score.

Matt LaFleur can support both Watson and Matthew Golden in this passing game. Green Bay ranks second in pass attempts, its backs rank last in adjusted YBC/ATT, and Jayden Reed’s absence concentrates Love’s choices. An eventual improvement on the ground needn’t erase either receiver’s role, but the Packers haven’t earned our assumption that they’ll suddenly run efficiently for four quarters.

Tampa Bay plays Cover 3 or Cover 1 on 70.8% of defensive dropbacks. Watson has averaged 2.02 YPRR against those looks across 45 routes, ahead of Golden’s 1.49. I lean Watson when choosing between the two this week. His repeated touchdowns deserve some regression; his full workload deserves a place near the top of the WR2 tier.

Jordan Addison, MIN (vs. Dolphins)

I’m treating Addison as Minnesota’s lead receiver Sunday, carrying forward the enlarged role he seized against Tampa Bay. After Justin Jefferson left, Addison ran 30 routes and drew nine targets; Jauan Jennings and Tai Felton combined for four targets on 47 routes. Kyler Murray looked for Addison far more often than either alternative, even with both regularly running patterns. Addison finished with five catches, 90 yards and a TD, plus 151 air yards that help explain the incompletions. Murray forced him to adjust to underthrown deep balls, and Addison still won downfield. A little more accuracy would have changed an already productive afternoon substantially.

Miami should ease the assignment for Murray. The Dolphins blitz on 37% of dropbacks but hurry opposing passers on only 13.6%; Todd Bowles’ pressure troubled Murray last week, but Miami hasn’t translated similar aggression into similar disruption. The Dolphins have also surrendered multiple passing TDs in every game. Addison doesn’t need Murray to discover some unprecedented level of quarterback play here. Just the same as he did last week.