Best KC Concepcion Prop Bet for Browns vs. Steelers on Thursday 10/1/26

Last season, the Cleveland Browns didn’t pick up their second win of the season until October 19, and they didn’t pick up their third until November 23. In the end, Cleveland finished 5-12, its second consecutive season with among the worst records in the league, and it fired Kevin Stefanski in the offseason.

So far, all of the Browns’ moves have paid dividends. Todd Monken opened his head coaching career with a lopsided loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but back-to-back wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers leave Cleveland at 2-1 headed into tonight’s 8:15 p.m. ET divisional opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football.

The Browns’ start is mostly attributable to their defense, but they’ve also drafted well on the offensive side of the ball in recent years, quarterback aside. 24th overall pick KC Concepcion (12 catches, 80 yards) has shown some flashes, as has second-round pick Denzel Boston.

Cleveland is a 2.5-point underdog for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook (+124 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 38.5. Pittsburgh is -148 on the Moneyline.

Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Concepcion.

Best KC Concepcion Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook

KC Concepcion U3.5 Receptions (+131)

This isn’t so much about Concepcion as it is his quarterback. In fact, Concepcion played 85.7% of the Browns’ offensive snaps in Week 3, the highest mark of his young career, but he hauled in only two catches for nine yards despite getting nine targets. He consistently managed separation in the game, but Deshaun Watson simply couldn’t find him, sailing it over his head once and bouncing one behind him once. In fact, Concepcion has managed 3.5 yards of separation per route, the 26th-most among all receivers with at least 10 targets this season, but Watson has made bad throws at an above-average rate.

Overall, Concepcion has been a league-average receiver this season, ranking 55th among 107 qualified wideouts by Pro Football Focus’ grades. The issue is that Watson ranks 31st among 38 qualified quarterbacks, and while Concepcion was most effectively utilized as a deep threat in college, Watson ranks fifth-to-last in intended air yards per passing attempt. He also isn’t precise enough with his short throws for Concepcion to thrive in open space. Concepcion did total four or more receptions in each of his first two games, but since then, fellow rookie Boston and second-year tight end Harold Fannin Jr. have emerged as Watson’s preferred options.

The Steelers’ defense has done a good job shutting down opposing wideouts. This season, Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th-fewest catches to opposing wide receivers, but tight ends and running backs have both been pretty efficient with their targets, so Watson could be better off operating the offense through Quinshon Judkins and Fannin. Additionally, even after trading Joey Porter Jr. to the Cowboys, the Steelers have a pretty good cornerback duo: Jamel Dean ranks ninth among 99 qualified corners by PFF’s standards, and Jalen Ramsey is an eight-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro who’s expected to play through his broken wrist. Concepcion could have a hard time getting separation from Dean and Ramsey, and Watson could have a hard time finding him.