There’s only one game on tonight’s MLB slate, but if Game 1 and Game 2 were any indication, we’re probably going to see some fireworks.
The Phillies will battle the Braves in Atlanta to see who will punch their ticket to the NLDS. Here are my two home runs picks for this all-or-nothing affair: Matt Olson and Bryce Harper.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | +411 | Here’s the funny thing about Aaron Nola’s season: Even when he was good in the second-half, he was still consistently giving up home runs. To wit, Nola posted a 3.33 ERA across 78.1 innings after the All-Star break, yet he surrendered a whopping 1.95 opponent long balls per nine. Olson hit 41 homers with 95th percentile marks in expected slugging (.503) and hard hit rate (52.0%) in 2026. He’s also got incredible career numbers versus Nola, boasting a 1.082 OPS in their past matchups. |
| Bryce Harper | +437 | Harper made amends for a terrible misplay in Game 2 with a game-tying home run in the eighth inning. He had 29 more in the regular season — one of which came off Grant Holmes in a start back on April 24. That’s not shocking. Holmes’ 5.04 xERA tells a very different story than his 3.44 ERA. As does the right-hander’s first percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.5) and his third percentile opponent hard hit rate (45.2%). Holmes can be had. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+411)
Aaron Nola will be starting Game 3 for the Phillies, though I’m sure his leash will be short, and both Jesus Luzardo and Zack Wheeler will be available out of the bullpen on short rest. Here’s the funny thing about Nola’s season: Even when he was quite good in the second-half, he was still consistently giving up home runs like few in baseball. To wit, Nola posted a 3.33 ERA across 78.1 innings after the All-Star break, yet he surrendered a whopping 1.95 opponent long balls per nine. I’m almost not even sure how that’s possible. Nola’s seen a lot of this Braves team over the years and several batters have amazing career numbers off the RHP. Ronald Acuna Jr. (+509) has four homers. Game 1 hero Austin Riley (+670) has seven. With that said, I’ll be riding with Olson on Thursday, who has his own 1.082 OPS off Nola. Olson was one of eight men to exceed the 40 home run plateau in 2026, and he did so with 95th percentile marks in expected slugging (.503) and hard hit rate (52.0%). He’s elite.
Bryce Harper 1+ Home Run (+437)
It’s currently unclear if an opener will be involved, but either way, Grant Holmes is expected to pitch a bulk of the innings in Game 3 for the Braves. He’ll kind of have to. He’s the last starting pitcher on the Wild Card roster. On the surface, Holmes was great in 2026, maintaining a 3.44 ERA over a career-high 151.2 innings. However, Holmes’ 5.04 xERA tells a very different story. As does the right-hander’s first percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.5) and his third percentile opponent hard hit rate (45.2%). Holmes gave up some loud contact throughout the regular season, and I’m not quite sure he can stave off regression much longer. That’s where Harper comes into the picture. The All-Star made amends for a terrible misplay in Game 2 with a game-tying home run in the eighth inning. He had 29 more in the regular season — one of which came off Holmes in a start back on April 24. There’s a precedent here.
