This one. This one is for a large sum of marbles. Like, it can’t be for all the marbles. It’s still just the Wild Card round. However, the stakes are quite high for the final meeting between the Phillies and the Braves in 2026.
Game 3 gets going in Atlanta just past 8:00 p.m. ET.
Let’s break down my two favorite prop bets for tonight’s win-or-go-home tilt on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies at Braves Best Prop Bets
Aaron Nola Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-121)
The elephant in the room with this prop is Nola’s leash. Unless the Phillies get out to a huge lead early on, I would expect Don Mattingly to turn to Zack Wheeler at some point, who would be pitching on three days rest. With that said, Nola only needs one mistake to give up multiple runs — and it’s happened quite a bit so far in 2026. Even in the second-half of the regular season, when Nola pitched to a 3.33 ERA over 78.1 innings, he still managed to give up a whopping 1.95 opponent home runs per nine. Heck, no pitcher surrendered more long balls for the campaign as a whole than Nola’s 37. It can happen in the blink of an eye.
These Braves hitters have seen a lot of Nola over the years, too. Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley have all faced-off with Nola well over 40 times, with each owning an OPS in the matchup that’s hovering around 1.100. Riley, specifically, has seven home runs off Nola, which is easily the most of any player in the right-hander’s career. I don’t like the veteran’s chances of getting out of this start unscathed.
Bryce Harper 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (-111)
Bryce Harper is a postseason performer. If you had started to question that after his gaffe in right field in Game 2, he more than responded with his game-tying home run the following inning. In 259 career plate appearances in the playoffs, Harper owns a .323 ISO and a 162 wRC+. Big time players show up in big time games, right? Well, tonight is a big time elimination game.
This should be a pretty good matchup for Harper, as well. Yes, the Braves will open Game 3 with the left-handed Ray Kerr, but the 32-year-old has only thrown 72.2 innings at the MLB level in his career, and none of them have been in the postseason. That’s a lot to ask. After that, Atlanta will turn to Grant Holmes, whose 5.04 xERA is more than a run-and-a-half higher than his 3.44 ERA in 2026. If that wasn’t worrisome enough for Walt Weiss, Holmes possesses a first percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.5) and a third percentile opponent hard hit rate (45.2%). The man loves giving up loud contact.
