Below you’ll find my NFL Week 4 picks, starting with three plays being published on Wednesday. I’ll update the article throughout the week, so be sure to check back for updates and new plays as games near kickoff.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1pm ET)
I don’t want to overreact to how dreadful the Eagles looked on Monday night in Chicago, but I feel there are plenty more reasons to like the Rams in this spot. Yes, fading a Philadelphia offense that looked inept against the Bears, and a defense that couldn’t stop Case Keenum is obvious, but this play goes beyond that simple handicap.
The Rams are also off a very disappointing primetime loss in Denver on Sunday. They get an extra day of rest and preparation heading into this one, and it’s desperation mode with Los Angeles staring down a 1-3 start. The Rams played pretty well against the Broncos, but some fluky calls and plays went against them in the end.
Be prepared to see Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay pull out all the stops to ensure they get this win in Week 4. Of course, the Rams went to Philly last season and had a field goal attenmpt to win the game. It wound up being blocked, and the Eagles returned it for a touchdown and a miracle cover. Two seasons ago the Rams also lost a playoff game in Philly in the snow with the game going down to the final play. Plenty of revenge on the mind of the Rams here.
Beyond the embarrassing showing in Week 3, the Eagles have just been flat out bad this season. They are 0-3 ATS with a very lackluster offense. Philly barely beat Washington in Week 1, winning on a failed two-point conversion, and then needed a game-winning drive to take care of a brutal Titans squad in Week 2.
Look for the Rams to get right here. I gave out -2.5 on Tuesday’s DraftKings Network Daily Bets podcast, but am fine laying -3 on this side if it remains there.
NFL Pick: Rams -2.5 (-120)
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (Sunday 1pm ET)
I backed the Texans in Week 1 and lost. I backed the Texans in Week 2 and lost. After laying off in Week 3, another loss, I’m ready to jump back in. Houston started 0-3 last season before getting to 12 wins by the end of the year. As a Texans O9.5 wins backer, I’m hoping history can repeat itself this season, starting on Sunday against the Cowboys.
Dallas has traveled every week this season, opening up at the Giants, then returning home to face the Commanders, then going out to Brazil in what turned into a heartbreaking loss to the Ravens. Now the Cowboys return home and make the short trip over to Houston.
The Texans will be the toughest defense that Dallas has faced this season. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense provides a cushy opportunity for Houston’s offense to breakout. But it’s tough to put a price on desperation. The Texans had the ball in their hands with a chance to beat the Bills and Colts and failed both times. We’re going to get a very strong effort from Houston in this one, and can maybe catch the Cowboys asleep after a long trip.
We also have this trend working in our favor, courtesy of the Action Network. In Week 4, matchups between an 0-3 team and a team with a win have resulted in the winless team going 47-25-1 ATS since 2005. That same trend is 13-3 ATS since 2020. The Texans not only fit the mold, but almost all of the candidates are priced as underdogs. Houston remaining priced a favorite at 0-3 shows that the market still respects it.
NFL Pick: Texans ML (-142)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1pm ET)
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
Last week I played a Bills/Seahawks moneyline parlay and lost. I guess I’m stubborn, because I’m going back to another play that has not been kind to me this season. I see the Bills and Seahawks both in great spots, though.
The Bills are rolling and get to play their third consecutive home game here. If there was a flat spot to overlook a bad team, it was probably last week. The Chargers came in at 0-2 and forced the Bills into five turnovers. Buffalo was able to overcome a massive turnover differential and not only win the game, but cover as a touchdown favorite. The Patriots might seem easy to overlook given how abysmal their offense has been, and let me tell you, Drake Maye is broken until further notice. But New England came into Buffalo for Sunday Night Football in Week 3 last season and stunned the Bills as touchdown underdogs. The Bills will be ready for this one.
Seattle had no business losing in Washington last weekend. But credit the Commanders for how they closed the game out, along with some strange plays along the way. Now you get a bounce-back spot for an angry Seahawks squad with a nasty defense returning back home. Enter the Chargers. If you can’t win when you force five turnovers, you pretty much can’t win. This team has been a disaster, and now goes from playing in Buffalo to playing in Seattle. I anticipate a very locked in Seattle team and the defense to suffocate Justin Herbert and company.
NFL Pick: Bills/Seahawks ML Parlay (-135)
