With 162 games spread out across more than six months, baseball seasons develop slowly. However, they can come to an end quickly, and after an 8-0 drubbing last night against the San Diego Padres, the Chicago Cubs suddenly find themselves on the brink of elimination. If San Diego wins tonight’s 10 p.m. Game 2 in the Wild Card Round, it’ll advance to face the top-seeded Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS on Saturday.
The Padres are -150 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to close out the series tonight behind Nick Pivetta. Chicago (+124) will start Kevin Gausman.
Below, I’ll break down my favorite prop bets from tonight’s potential elimination game, focusing on one player from each team.
Cubs at Padres Best Prop Bets Tonight for Wednesday 9/30/26
Fernando Tatís Jr. O1.5 Total Bases (-108)
Tatís got his season off to an extremely poor start, as he had just a .658 OPS at the end of May. However, he steadily improved, finishing with a 1.066 OPS in September. In that month, the Dominican recorded at least two total bases 16 times in 23 games, including 12 times in a 15-game span. He also opened last night’s game with a home run against Matthew Boyd and added a single in the seventh inning. All in all, Tatís got slightly unlucky this season, slugging .470 from a .500 xSLG, so perhaps his late-season improvement was inevitable.
He has a pretty friendly matchup in Gausman, who struggled after his trade from the Toronto Blue Jays, finishing with a 4.83 ERA across nine starts. The 35-year-old has excellent swing-and-miss stuff, but he struggled against power hitters this season, ranking below the league median in each of barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, three categories in which Tatís ranked in the top quintile. Half of Gausman’s pitches to right-handed batters were four-seam fastballs, and Tatís was stellar against those pitches, posting a .553 xSLG.
Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ Hits + Runs + Stolen Bases (-120)
Crow-Armstrong’s poor playoff track record precedes him, as he has just a .167/.219/.167 slash line in 33 career playoff plate appearances, which included a three-game Wild Card series against San Diego last season. Still, this is a player who just capped off a 40-40 season while leading all of baseball in runs scored, and he finished the season by recording at least two H/R/SB in 14 of his final 22 games (he was pulled in the first inning of the season finale after getting a hit). 33 plate appearances is too small a sample size to judge Crow-Armstrong on, and these odds are fairly friendly as a result.
Pivetta is a good pitcher who ended the season in exceptional form, giving up just three earned runs in 18.2 innings after returning from a five-month absence due to an elbow flexor strain. However, he hasn’t been perfect, as he’d rank in the bottom quintile in ground ball rate and barrel rate if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, so Crow-Armstrong, who does a good job finding the launch-angle sweet spot, should be able to take advantage. Plus, while Pivetta has been better in the running game since joining the Padres, with some pretty strong defensive catchers in Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano behind the dish, he was below-average in the running game for four straight seasons with the Boston Red Sox. Crow-Armstrong stole a base last night despite the fact that San Diego started Michael King, a more consistently stellar pitcher in the running game.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB Best Bets Today: Top Wild Card Round NRFI props for Wednesday 9/30/26
- MLB DFS Picks: Starting Pitcher Rankings for Wednesday 9/30/26
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.
