A dominant 8-0 victory last night has placed the Padres one win away from the NLDS. Standing in their way is a desperate Cubs squad, hoping to even up this Wild Card Round series on Wednesday. Which side will come out on top during Game 2 this evening in San Diego?
The Padres are favorites (-137) over the Cubs; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Chicago and San Diego on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Padres pick, best bet today
- Padres ML (-137): San Diego’s big bats are finally living up to their potential. In comparison, Chicago’s league-leading offense has looked average in September. Gausman’s up and down pitching makes the Cubs a risky bet on Wednesday.
Cubs vs. Padres prediction, preview
Chicago, with its season hanging in the balance, will hand the ball to Kevin Gausman tonight. It’s been an up and down second half for the veteran, traded to the Cubs during August’s trade deadline. Through nine starts with his new club, the right-hander has notched a 4.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 57 strikeouts (10.2 K/9). Even more troubling, he possesses a 5.40 ERA on the road this season. In theory, a game at spacious Petco Park should help limit any potential damage. However, Gausman’s biggest issue has been giving up quality contact. He’s on the hook for a mediocre 9.1 H/9 ratio, his worst mark since 2022. The 35-year-old also ranks within the 46th percentile or worse in barrel rate (7.7%), hard-hit rate (40.0%) and ground ball rate (41.7%).
In the past, a matchup with the Padres would serve as a potential get-right spot for opposing starters. With that being said, these aren’t the same old Friars. Since the start of September, they lead the majors in batting average (.281), OPS (.815) and wRC+ (127). That offensive success continued on Tuesday, buoyed by Fernando Tatis Jr.’s superb play. The outfielder was a monster during the second half, notching 20 home runs over his final 64 games. Last night, he went deep again vs. Chicago’s Matthew Boyd. As a unit, the Padres tend to hit better against right-handed pitching (.722 OPS) than lefties (.705 OPS).
The Cubs have been a juggernaut on offense, leading the league in runs (850), slugging percentage (.428) and OPS (.767). MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong is the straw that stirs the drink; he became just the seventh player in MLB history to join the 40 homer/40 steal club. He’s accompanied by a slew of standout hitters. Six different Cubs regulars (min. 400 plate appearances) have recorded a wRC+ above 100 this season. Regardless, the North Siders haven’t been at their best over the past few weeks. The Cubs have recorded a good, but certainly not great, 108 runs this month; that’s only good enough for 15th in the majors.
Toeing the slab for San Diego will be Nick Pivetta. Following a breakout 2025 campaign, the righty missed most of this season due to injury. Since returning in September, he’s recorded a 1.45 ERA over 18.2 innings of work. Granted, manager Craig Stammen has kept the veteran on a fairly strict pitch limit. Still, the 28-year-old only needs to toss three or four frames tonight. The Padres wield an intimidating group of relievers, headlined by superstar closer Mason Miller. Keep in mind, this group got plenty of rest during yesterday’s blowout win. As a unit, San Diego owns the league’s fifth-best bullpen ERA (3.53).
Best Bet: Padres ML (-137)
A slight drop off at the plate couldn’t come at a worse time for Chicago. Pivetta is an above-average arm, and San Diego should have little issue turning this into a bullpen game if necessary. On the other side, Gausman has been frustratingly inconsistent in 2026. A recent hot streak on offense for the Padres bodes well for their chances at finishing this series off tonight.
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