In the loaded National League, anyone is capable of a deep October run. Both the Cubs (89-73) and Padres (91-71) have what it takes to make a World Series appearance. However, one of these two contenders faces elimination in a best of three series this week. Chicago, wielding the league’s highest-scoring offense, will take on an elite San Diego pitching staff. Which side will come out on top tonight at Petco Park?
The Padres are favorites (-131) over the Cubs; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Chicago and San Diego on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Padres pick, best bet today
- Padres ML (-131): Boyd has gotten a bit lucky this season, but now he’ll have to face a red-hot San Diego lineup. On the other side, King’s knack for limiting homers could keep Chicago’s powerful offense in check. In front of their home crowd, back the Padres tonight.
Cubs vs. Padres prediction, preview
Chicago, as previously mentioned, is an offensively-minded club. Still, this group isn’t without upside on the mound. Matthew Boyd gets the nod tonight, making his 23rd start of the season. During 126.2 innings pitched, he’s accounted for a 3.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 96 strikeouts (6.8 K/9). The veteran has allowed two earned runs combined over his previous two outings. With that being said, the southpaw isn’t exactly a saber metric darling. Boyd sits within the 25th percentile or lower in xERA (4.66), xBA (.264), fastball velocity (92.8 MPH) and strikeout rate (18.3%).
For much of the season, the Padres have been held back by their lineup. Big names such as Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts had down years. Playing home games at spacious Petco Park certainly didn’t help matters on offense. With that being said, the Friars have been on a tear at the plate. Since September 1st, San Diego leads all of baseball in batting average (.281), OPS (.815) and wRC+ (127). Five different players on the active roster (minimum 50 at-bats) have recorded an OPS above .750 during that time. That includes superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., slashing .337/.413/.652 this month. The Padres wield a respectable .705 OPS against left-handed pitching, 14th-best in the majors.
Michael King gets the nod tonight for San Diego. It’s been another terrific campaign from the 31-year-old, arguably the sport’s most underrated pitcher. Through 185.0 innings of work (32 starts), he’s notched a 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 159 strikeouts (7.7 K/9). The veteran has been even better when taking the mound at home (2.74 ERA). King’s most exceptional trait is a knack for limiting quality contact. He sits within the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate (32.7%) and 66th percentile in ground ball rate (45.1%). To boot, the righty has a sparkling 0.9 HR/9 ratio when pitching at home. Even if King struggles early, an elite Padres bullpen (3.53 ERA) could pick up the slack.
Avoiding the long ball will be key for King and the Padres tonight. The Cubs lead all of baseball in runs (850) and OPS (.767) while ranking third in homers (220). Pete Crow-Armstrong, the likely NL MVP, is the one to watch. However, the North Siders aren’t lacking in firepower. Seven different members of the active roster (minimum 300 plate appearances) have a wRC+ above 100 this season. Granted, Chicago has been slightly less effective over the past month. The team has a wRC+ of 103 during the month of September. That’s only good enough for 13th in the big leagues during that stretch.
Best Bet: Padres ML (-131)
Chicago’s slight drop-off at the plate couldn’t come at a worse time. Although the Cubs are still capable of putting up runs, their knack for hard contact could be suppressed by King on Tuesday night. On the flip side, Boyd’s recent success isn’t backed up by his peripherals. The Padres are finally living up to their potential on offense as well. Expect the favorites to eke out a hard-fought Game 1 win this evening.
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