Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s all-day slate of Wild Card action: Manny Machado and Miguel Vargas.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | +423 | For the season as a whole, Matthew Boyd’s underwhelmed. His 4.66 xERA sits in the 25th percentile of the league, while a 23rd percentile strikeout rate (18.5%) is the lowest he’s registered in nearly a decade. Meanwhile, Machado hit his 30th home run of the season on Saturday, which also happened to be the 399th of his career. He’s always hit lefties well, and that very much includes Boyd, as Machado sports a 1.255 OPS in 20 at-bats against the veteran. |
| Miguel Vargas | +407 | I’m assuming the Astros will be using a lot of left-handed relievers in this bullpen game, as that’s the most obvious way to attack Chicago’s left-heavy lineup. That’s great news for Vargas, who has managed a 155 wRC+ and a 52.2% hard hit rate off southpaws this season. Overall, Vargas possesses a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.378) and a 93rd percentile expected slugging rate (.496). |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Manny Machado 1+ Home Run (+423)
It’s been an interesting couple of months for Matthew Boyd. In August, the left-hander couldn’t keep the ball in the yard, surrendering 2.61 opponent home runs per nine. However, in September, Boyd didn’t give up a single long ball over 29.2 innings of work. I guess the term is a “streaky” pitcher. In any event, for the season as a whole, Boyd’s underwhelmed. His 4.66 xERA sits in the 25th percentile of the league, while a 23rd percentile strikeout rate (18.5%) is the lowest he’s registered in nearly a decade. He’s past his prime. I can not say the same about Machado. The veteran infielder hit his 30th home run of 2026 on Saturday, which was the 399th of his career. Machado now has eight campaigns with at least 30 bombs. He also owns a 126 wRC+ against LHPs at the MLB level, so it makes sense he’s always seen Boyd well. In 20 at-bats, Machado’s easily gotten the best of the southpaw, posting a 1.255 OPS. Machado’s lone homer off Boyd? That came back on June 30, when these two squads met at Wrigley.
Miguel Vargas 1+ Home Run (+407)
Game 1 in Houston is going to be a battle of the bullpens, which is annoying to predict, but should mean a higher-scoring game than anywhere else on the slate. With that said, I think you can pretty safely assume that a lot of the relievers coming out of the Astros’ bullpen will be left-handed, especially if Steven Okert (hamstring), who has not pitched in an MLB game since August, is able to return to action. That’s simply how you have to attack this left-heavy White Sox lineup. However, while that’s bad news for the likes of Munetaka Murakami (+344) and Kyle Teel (+620), it’s a massive opportunity for the right-handed Vargas. It was a breakout campaign for the 26-year-old, with Vargas possessing a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.378) and a 93rd percentile expected slugging rate (.496). Specifically versus LHPs, Vargas managed a 155 wRC+ and a 52.2% hard hit rate. Southpaws beware.
