We’re about to enter Week 4 of the NFL season and the injuries are mounting across the league. New York Jets running back Breece Hall exited Sunday’s game with a thigh issue and is reportedly week-to-week moving forward, potentially clearing the way for backup Braelon Allen to take over this backfield while he’s out.
What do the numbers tell us about Allen’s fantasy football outlook, and is he a must-add pickup on the waiver wire after Hall’s injury?
Braelon Allen fantasy football outlook
The Jets look like a very functional team three weeks into the season. A 1-2 record doesn’t look like much, but they covered the spread in a couple of games against teams with much higher expectations – the Packers and Lions – and the offense seems to be perfectly capable of supporting legitimate fantasy football assets. The presence of Geno Smith under center has allowed this unit to take a big step forward, which props up the value of the weapons involved. Breece Hall averages 14.17 FPPG in PPR formats, good for 13th among halfbacks. That’s despite exiting Week 3’s contest early in the fourth quarter with a thigh injury that now has him week-to-week while he recovers.
Braelon Allen stepped in as the top backfield option once Hall departed on Sunday. The third-year pro handled just four carries for 14 yards on the ground and caught all three of his targets for an additional three yards. It wasn’t inspiring production from the backup in fantasy as he finished with just 4.7 fantasy points, but the underlying numbers are what make him an intriguing add from the waiver wire this week.
After Hall exited that game, Allen played all 17 offensive snaps for the Jets. Third-string halfback Isaiah Davis didn’t play a single snap against the Lions, so while he may mix in a little bit in Week 4, it seems likely that Allen handles the vast majority of backfield work. The lack of rushing work in Week 3 isn’t a reason to worry, either, since New York was operating in a negative game script. Beyond that, Allen was involved in the receiving game once he checked in – all three of his targets came after Hall departed the contest and he logged a 64% route share in that sample.
With just 61 rushing yards on 19 carries this season, Allen’s numbers don’t jump off the page. However, he already has a touchdown under his belt and has garnered a 4.9% target share with five looks on a route share of just 31.9% over the course of his three games. As we saw this past week, he should see a much higher route share moving forward in Hall’s absence, which bumps both his floor and ceiling in PPR formats. It also appears likely that he’ll handle red-zone and goal-line touches, but that’s a natural conclusion given his 6-foot-1, 235-pound frame.
Allen has just 471 career rushing yards on an average of 3.65 YPC, so he hasn’t been a particularly efficient runner when given chances in the past. Volume is what should prop him up for fantasy production, though. If he’s operating as the clear lead back for the Jets, the outlook should be fairly positive for now. The team ranks 13th in offensive EPA/play and sits 16th in scoring with 64 points through three games; their running backs are averaging a combined 19.9 FPPG, too.
New York’s next game is against a weak Bears defense, so Allen should be scooped off the waiver wire and played as a FLEX option with room for more in Week 4.
