Jesse Legree hung 240 yards and two touchdowns on Texas Tech, and UTEP’s corners now inherit the job of keeping him in front of them. Nine of his 17 catches have gained at least 20 yards. JaMarcus Shephard has unleashed a gloriously aggressive passing offense at Oregon State, and I’m eager for another helping. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the UTEP Miners and the Oregon State Beavers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UTEP vs. Oregon State prediction, preview
Braden Atkinson has already hurled 1,122 yards, including 333 and five touchdowns in his monster game against Montana. Six touchdown drives covered at least 67 yards in that 52-17 win. Montana supplied softer opposition, certainly, but Atkinson had already piled up 376 yards against Houston and 413 against Texas Tech. Shephard’s passing ambition survived both losses.
UTEP’s defensive profile should encourage Shephard to keep attacking. Opponents have completed two-thirds of their passes against the Miners at a cool 8.35 clip. They’ve also converted 21 of 41 third downs. So many ways for ways for OSU to attack, here. Atkinson can find Aeryn Hampton when the Miners devote extra defenders to Legree. Hampton already has 14 catches for 172 yards. Make these corners tackle somebody, see if they’re up to it.
Oregon State’s running game still irritates me. Three yards per carry makes protecting a late lead harder than simply handing the ball off, and the defense allows 407.7 yards per game. Tavorus Jones can test that front after rushing for 162 yards on 30 attempts. I’ve left UTEP room for 24 points; expecting another Oklahoma-style shutout would badly underestimate Oregon State’s defensive problems.
Oregon State vs. UTEP pick, best bet
Scotty Walden nevertheless needs EJ Colson Jr. to sustain far more offense than he managed at Michigan. Two fumble recoveries preceded UTEP’s touchdowns, and Colson finished with 86 passing yards. The Miners have converted nine of 35 third downs this season. I’m reluctant to credit Walden with long possessions when his offense keeps dying on third down.
I’m laying 11.5 at -108, with Oregon State winning somewhere around 38-24. I want Oregon State throwing until the Miners demonstrate they can stop it.
Best bet: Oregon State -11.5 (-108)
Projected score: Oregon State 38, UTEP 24.
Best Bet: Oregon State -11.5 (-110) at UTEP
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