Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us and the league landscape is beginning to take shape. The Seattle Seahawks have survived the first two weeks with a backup quarterback and gets starter Sam Darnold back on Sunday, boosting the outlook for the reigning champs. The Washington Commanders are headed in the opposite direction, though, losing Jayden Daniels to injury last week and now sending out Marcus Mariota to try and dig them out of an 0-2 hole.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET at Northwest Stadium. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Seahawks vs. Commanders in NFL Week 3.
Seahawks vs. Commanders prediction, preview
The reigning champions are unbeaten to start the season after a 13-10 win over the Patriots and a 31-7 drubbing of the Cardinals. We easily could’ve seen a different outcome with Drew Lock under center for an injured Sam Darnold in these games, but the backup has played admirably and the team is humming along without having skipped a beat.
The offense ranks 10th in EPA/play with a solid 22.0 points per game – Jaxon Smith-Njigba is carving up defenses with 17 receptions for 277 yards and four touchdowns, but that’s expected from the stud wideout. Rookie halfback Jadarian Price is off the injury report following a scare, so with the return of Darnold as well, this attack will be at full strength. The defense has been incredible, but that was expected – Seattle ranks fourth in EPA/play allowed, plus ninth in EPA/dropback and second in EPA/rush. The secondary has come up with four interceptions already and the pass rush has five sacks, though the pressure rate is on the low side after two weeks. It should be noted, though, that safeties Julian Love (calf) and Ty Okada (hamstring) have both been ruled out.
On the opposite side of this matchup are the Commanders, who are winless after suffering a 24-22 loss to the Eagles and a 37-20 loss to the Cowboys. The record is bad enough on its own, but losing Jayden Daniels last week added injury to insult and now leaves this franchise in dire straits while he’s out.
Marcus Mariota isn’t necessarily a bad backup – he ranks 26th among 40 qualified NFL quarterbacks in EPA/dropback and 17th in completion percentage over expectation since the start of last season. However, he generally sees limited passing volume and is nowhere near the caliber of a healthy Daniels. While Washington is 11th in EPA/play and averages 21.0 PPG over the first two weeks, the efficiency of this offense will quite likely decrease without the starter, especially where the passing game is concerned. The weapons are quite solid between Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs, and the run game is also 11th in EPA/rush with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White in the backfield. The Commanders will need plenty of scoring to overcome a poor defense, though. They’ve given up 30.5 PPG on average so far and are 28th in EPA/play allowed, looking particularly vulnerable against the pass as they’ve conceded seven touchdowns via the air already.
Seahawks vs. Commanders pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Seahawks as a -7.5 road favorite with -395 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Commanders are a +310 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 40.5 combined points.
There’s a reason Seattle is favored by a big margin here. The defense is in a different stratosphere than that of the opposition, so Mariota cracking the code to produce in this spot should be pretty difficult. He should be running plenty, and while he could potentially loft a deep shot or two downfield against a secondary that’s down its best safety, the outlook is pretty dire for scoring against the Seahawks. On the flip side, if the Hawks’ passing attack looked this efficient with Lock at the helm, imagine what they should be capable of with Darnold back under center. They’re third in EPA/dropback and Smith-Njigba is virtually unstoppable – there’s not a defensive back on this Commanders roster who stands a chance at slowing him down.
It’s a bad matchup for Washington and a pretty great one for Seattle. I like the Seahawks to cover at an alt line of -6.5, but as an alternative best bet, I’m looking toward over 23.5 points for the visitors or under 14.5 points for the Commanders in this one. Either one of those team totals should prove worth taking in this one.
