Braden Pegan torched his former Utah State teammates for eight catches, 122 yards and two touchdowns, and Utah has now cracked 30 points in nine consecutive games. I’m growing fond of this Dampier-Pegan partnership. Iowa State awaits in Ames with a rebuilt defense that looks like it’s ready to be a natural disaster; they just made Iowa sweat through a 16-13 win. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Utah Utes.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Iowa State vs. Utah prediction, preview
Jimmy Rogers’s Cyclones squeezed Iowa down to 93 rushing yards and rank sixth among 68 Power Four teams in opponent-adjusted rushing defense. Wayshawn Parker will have to fight for his yards Saturday. I’ve cut Utah’s scoring expectation; Devon Dampier will need to throw the Utes out of some ugly downs.
Dampier has completed 71.6% of his throws, with seven touchdowns against one interception. Pegan scored from 28 and 37 yards out last week, and coordinator Kevin McGiven should keep pursuing those larger gains against a secondary missing Jaheim Singletary. I’d keep throwing at those corners. Ask the Cyclones to tackle Parker, account for Dampier’s legs, then chase Pegan, and somebody should lose a step.
Jaylen Raynor has been much less impressive through the air. During Iowa State’s 55-7 demolition of Bowling Green, Aiden Flora ripped off touchdown runs of 61 and 42 yards. To boot, he and Cameron Pettaway also returned kicks for scores. Raynor needed only 17 passing attempts. Against Iowa, when another touchdown might have won the game, he only chuckd up 117 passing yards and the Cyclones earned nine first downs.
Utah vs. Iowa State pick, best bet
Utah should make Raynor beat him in obvious passing situations. Utah has already slashed its rushing allowance from 181.2 yards per game last season to 75. Playing lowly Idaho didn’t hurt that total, admittedly. But the much-better Arkansas scraped together just 61 rushing yards while Utah still hammered home four sacks. They can bottleneck the ground game easy and bludgeon the QB. This unit should crowd Flora’s running lanes, keep daring Raynor to complete the throws that move the sticks, hoping pressure turns into a turnover, etc.
I’m laying 7.5 at -108. Iowa State’s stout front seven tempers my Utah projection to just 27 points, and I know that seems scant. Dampier is the better leader to back, here, re. backing Dampier to finish the extra touchdown drive. I still don’t trust Iowa State on third-and-long.
Best bet: Utah -7.5 (-108),
Projected score: Utah 27, Iowa State 17
Best Bet: Utah -7.5 (-110) at Iowa State
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