Prediction, pick for Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos at UFC Vegas 121

This week’s UFC Fight Night is headlined by a five-round Bantamweight contest between No. 12 Raul Rosas Jr. vs. No. 13 Raoni Barcelos. Barcelos, 29, is 22-5 with 11 finishes, while Rosas has a record of 12-1 with eight finishes in his career. Tonight’s event begins at 5:00 p.m. ET with the Prelims and continues at 8:00 p.m. ET with the Main Card on Paramount+. 

Check out my best bet for Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos at tonight’s UFC Fight Night below.

Exact Method of Victory: Decision (-125)

Rosas Jr. earned a UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2022. After winning his UFC debut, he suffered his first career loss to Christian Rodriguez at UFC 287 in April 2023. Since then, Rosas has won five straight fights and has climbed the Bantamweight rankings. Even though he’s been in the UFC for nearly four years, Rosas is still only 21, with his 22nd birthday in less than two weeks. 

Barcelos has also won five straight, with notable wins over Payton Talbott, Cody Garbrandt, and Montel Jackson. Even at 39, Barcelos seems to keep improving and evolving his skill set. Rosas is two inches taller, while both fighters possess a 67″ standing reach. 

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Rosas is the favorite at -155 with Barcelos as a +130 underdog. The over/under is 3.5 rounds, with the over at -180 and the under at +140. This fight is -125 to go the distance and -105 for a finish. 

Although Rosas is elite on the ground, Barcelos has a big advantage on the feet. Rosas lands over six takedowns per minute at a 54 percent rate. Barcelos has an 87 percent takedown defense, which could prevent Rosas from landing many takedowns in this bout. Barcelos lands 4.65 significant strikes per minute compared to Rosas’ 1.34. I see this as a back-and-forth fight, with momentum shifting depending on whether it stays on the feet or goes to the ground. Rosas and Barcelos recorded many finishes early in their careers but haven’t displayed that killer instinct recently. With that in mind, I’m taking this fight to end by decision, -125. Barcelos’ last four wins have come by decision, while Rosas’ previous three victories were by decision.