Old school rivals will battle it out this afternoon in West Lafayette. #3 Notre Dame (3-0) outlasted Michigan State last weekend at home. It was a different story for Purdue (1-2), who fell short in a 52-38 shootout against UCLA. Now, the Boilermakers will head back to Indiana for a meeting with their in-state rivals. Can the Fighting Irish secure another victory, or is an upset brewing at Ross-Ade Stadium?
The Fighting Irish are listed as 27.5-point favorites over the Boilermakers, with the total set at O/U 58.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Notre Dame vs. Purdue Week 4 matchup.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue prediction, preview
A win is a win, but it wasn’t the prettiest Week 3 showing for Notre Dame. Despite entering the contest as massive favorites, the Fighting Irish were only up seven at halftime. They pulled away with ten unanswered points, but it’s fair to worry about this team’s knack for starting off slow. Keep in mind, this was a similar showing to Week 1’s eventual blowout win over Wisconsin. It’s not a major issue right now, but the Fighting Irish will likely place an emphasis on starting off strong.
Fortunately, this Purdue defense doesn’t pose much of a challenge. This unit has allowed a combined total of 90 points over the past two weeks against UCLA and Wake Forest. The Boilermakers have surrendered a Big Ten-worst 5.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents this season. That should spell trouble against a Notre Dame squad that loves pounding the rock. Whether its Aneyas Williams or Nolan James Jr. out of the backfield, expect an early emphasis on the ground. If that doesn’t work, quarterback CJ Carr is capable of lighting up this secondary through the air. Purdue also ranks last in the Big Ten with 8.9 yards allowed per pass attempt. Keep in mind, the Irish dropped 56 points when these two teams met last season.
It’ll likely be up to this Boilermakers offense to keep things close today. Fortunately, quarterback Ryan Browne is emerging as a true standout under center. Through three games, the junior has thrown for 1,024 yards and seven touchdowns while coughing up just one interception. However, this hasn’t been a one-man show. Minnesota transfer Fame Ijeboi has been a pleasant surprise at running back. He’s churned out 248 rushing yards and six touchdowns so far, including a two-score performance vs. UCLA. On the outside, Asaad Waseem and Xavier Townsend form a dangerous wide receiver duo. Purdue is churning out nearly 377 passing yards per game, second-most in the nation. That’s due in part to falling behind early, but it’s proof this offense can move the chains in a hurry.
That could prove more difficult than usual this afternoon against a tenacious Notre Dame defense. Keep in mind, the Irish have allowed a grand total of 23 points all season. With that being said, two factors are working against another dominant showing today. For starters, all three of Notre Dame’s opponents so far (Michigan State, Rice, Wisconsin) utilize a run-heavy approach on offense. In addition, two of the three wield superior defenses compared to Purdue. The Boilermakers are more likely to air it out, leaning on the big arm of Browne and some talented wideouts. The Irish haven’t been tested much through the air so far, so this week’s game presents a different type of challenge.
Best Bet: Notre Dame vs. Purdue over 58.5 points (-105)
I have little to no confidence in Purdue’s lackluster defense on Saturday. The Irish can move the ball with ease on the ground, which is only exacerbated by the terrific arm of Carr. With that being said, the Boilermakers have proven to be capable on offense in their own right. Browne has delivered prolific numbers against Power 4 defenses this season, and it’s easy to see him notching 20+ points in this one. Keeping that in mind, these schools appear poised for a high-scoring affair this afternoon.
