QB Hauss Hejny has made Jim Mora’s first two games at Colorado State awfully enjoyable, wouldn’t you say? The Rams are 2-0 for the first time since 2011, and their new quarterback followed their opening winner with 325 passing yards and another 85 rushing against Southern Utah. Momentum is there, and it is indeed its own reward. BYU, however, brings their own QB phenom in Bear Bachmeier to Fort Collins after they just beat Arizona 28-17. Hejny has helped Colorado State score through the air and on the ground; Bachmeier’s defense just spent a second half taking away both those lanes from a more complete unit than the one the Rams still field, QB-delight aside. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Colorado State Rams and the BYU Cougars.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Colorado State vs. BYU prediction, preview
Colorado State churned out a yawning 678 yards last week, although Mel Brown accumulated 153 of his 171 rushing yards on two explosive carries—one for 80 and another for 73. We’d be wise to bake in the expectation of at least a couple substantial gains against BYU, especially with Hejny capable of pulling the ball and running past a defender chasing Brown. To score repeatedly and definitively, though, the Rams may have to complete far more plays between the 20s than they’ve yet done because of their explosiveness.
Against Arizona, BYU’s defenders became much harder to get past as the game progressed, and that’s part of this entire bet right here. After falling behind 17-14 at halftime, the Cougars allowed just 87 total yards and minus-two rushing yards over the final two quarters. Arizona was moving the ball before the break with ease; BYU adjusted, and took those away as the game continued. Let’s lean into that response. Hejny will test the containment, sure, but the Cougars have already recovered from an opponent finding success against them.
They should have enough offensive variety to recover from a bad possession of their own. LJ Martin carried 20 times for 98 yards against Arizona, while Bachmeier threw three touchdown passes and ran for another score. He’s lethal. Colorado State will have to account for both players at the exchange point, then cover behind the linebackers if Bachmeier keeps looking downfield. BYU has averaged 6.0 yards per rush and 9.0 per pass attempt. They move. I expect L.J. to keep enough second downs manageable for Bachmeier to use the whole playbook.
BYU vs. Colorado State pick, best bet
Colorado State has collected eight takeaways and built a plus-seven turnover margin through two games. Bachmeier’s offense has yet to give the ball away. I’m reluctant to budget another generous supply of short fields for the Rams against an opponent protecting possession this well. Starting farther from the end zone would make Hejny sustain his accuracy through more downs, with BYU getting additional chances to force a punt before Colorado State reaches scoring range.
Hejny could give Colorado State a productive early stretch as BYU settles into its first road game. I’m counting on Martin to keep the Cougars moving while the defense adjusts, then on Bachmeier to finish drives against a Rams unit that has to account for both runners. Give me BYU -17.5 and a 38-17 win. Colorado State has improved, but the Rams will have to sustain that improvement through longer drives and fewer gifts of possession to stay within this number.
Best bet: BYU -17.5 (-110).
Projected score: BYU 38, Colorado State 17.
Best Bet: BYU -17.5 (-110) at Colorado State
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