Michael Hawkins Jr. has given Mountaineers HC Rich Rodriguez a willing and explosive runner at quarterback, and West Virginia has wasted little time at all deploying his dual-threat capabilities with verve. Virginia has enjoyed much the same freedom with Beau Pribula, whose legs helped the Cavaliers absolutely bury NC State before he threw three first-quarter touchdowns against Norfolk State. Both teams arrive unbeaten for their meeting in Charlotte. In a game like this, it always comes down to turnovers. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Virginia Cavaliers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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WVU vs. Virginia prediction, preview
Hawkins has already run for 199 yards and three touchdowns this season, adding 287 through the air on only 21 attempts. RB Cam Cook has run the ball another 40 times for 194 yards. Rodriguez’s offensive plan thus far seems to be: make a defender hesitate over which runner to follow, then have Hawkins start to throw as soon as the secondary starts creeping forward. I like how readily Hawkins has adapted to those responsibilities, how poised he seems in this offense. Virginia will make him demonstrate considerably more as a passer, I think, because the Cavaliers can keep those early designed runs from reaching the second level of the defense.
Against NC State, Virginia allowed 168 total yards in a 34-8 win. The Wolfpack subsequently scored 73 against Richmond, so we should give the Cavaliers a fine-form salute for the work they did against an offense that can detonate for over 70. The Cavs have otherwised allowed 2.4 yards per rush, and now have linebacker Kam Robinson back after his return against Norfolk State. Robinson should help spy and pursue Hawkins when he pulls the ball, and his presence might be enough to rattle him. With fewer easy rushing gains, West Virginia would have to entrust its quarterback with longer, more predictable passing downs. We haven’t seen it yet, and it’ll be a stress test for WVU.
Pribula, however, will find himself carving up a more accommodating secondary. Coastal Carolina gained 425 yards at 6.6 per play against West Virginia last week, and the Mountaineers have allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt overall. Virginia’s offense has averaged a whopping 11.0, which is an extraordinary figure even in two games. Pribula can threaten a keeper, wait for a defender to step forward, and throw into the space he has vacated. I’d keep asking West Virginia to make that choice until its coverage gives Virginia a reason to stop.
Virginia vs. WVU pick, best bet
The Cavaliers have been deliberate between snaps, averaging 33.1 seconds per play, second-slowest in the field of 68. A couple of empty possessions could therefore make separating by double digits altogether impossible. West Virginia also allows only 3.1 yards per rush, so Virginia may have to throw earlier in a drive than it would prefer. I’m allowing the Mountaineers 20 points, including some production from Hawkins when the initial play breaks down. His mobility should keep a few otherwise unsuccessful possessions alive.
As Virginia makes Hawkins throw through longer downs, Pribula should still have opportunities to choose his throws against the softer part of West Virginia’s defense. I have the Cavaliers turning a competitive first half into a 34-20 win and will lay 10.5. Over the full game, I trust the Cavaliers to force more punts and give their quarterback another chance to attack that coverage.
Best bet: Virginia -10.5 (-104).
Projected score: Virginia 34, West Virginia 20.
Best Bet: Virginia -10.5 (-105) at WVU
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