Indianapolis and Kansas City both opened the 2026 campaign at home with quarterbacks coming off major leg injuries. The results couldn’t have been more different.
Patrick Mahomes played as if nothing happened, completing 15 of his 27 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns and an interception, plus seven carries for 23 yards and a rushing score. Daniel Jones? He struggled to drive certain throws downfield. As a result, he averaged 5.4 yards per attempt and ended with 166 passing yards. He rushed only once for four yards.
Both running games were solid, though. Jonathan Taylor carried 19 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns. He even caught three of four targets for 23 yards. He played 89% of the snaps and should be viewed as a bell-cow running back that is game-script agnostic, as Seth McGowan only garnered an 11% snap share.
Kenneth Walker III, meanwhile, was A. M. A. Z. I. N. G. He rushed 23 times for 173 yards and a touchdown while catching three of six targets for 18 yards and another score. He was slicing. He was dicing. He cut around defenders as if they were on ice skates. He made one of the best run defenses last season look pathetic. The Broncos missed 24 tackles on the night, the most in Week 1 by a wide margin. Much of that can be attributed to Walker’s dominant performance.
The defenses showed the greatest gaps of competence. Derrick Henry ran all over the Colts’ defense, finishing with 144 yards on 24 carries with three touchdowns. Lamar Jackson added 40 yards on seven carries with another score. The Colts’ run defense allowed -7.18 expected points, the fourth-lowest number in Week 1.
Through the air? Not much better, as Jackson went 17-for-25 for 324 yards and a touchdown. The Colts had the seventh-lowest pressure rate and allowed the fourth-highest quarterback rating in Week 1.
The Chiefs’ defense made a potential Super Bowl contender look like pretenders in Week 1. Bo Nix went 17-for-28 for 131 yards (4.7 YPA) with a touchdown and an interception. He was sacked four times. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Nix was sacked only 24 and 22 times. Kansas City notched the eighth-best pressure rate while blitzing at the sixth-highest rate. Their four sacks were tied for the third-most of the week.
Kansas City’s rush defense was stout, holding the Broncos to 61 yards on 15 carries. Their 4.02 expected points were the third-most in the league.
Now, Denver was probably a little too pass-happy, while the Colts present a real threat: Taylor is one of the league’s best running backs and runs behind the fourth-best offensive line per PFF. That said, it’s a tall task to go into Kansas City and control the game, especially since Mahomes looks healthy and the new-look rushing attack is one of the most potent in football.
Looking at the odds for Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs are 6.5-point home favorites with -290 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Colts are +235 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 46.5 points.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (IND @ KC)
RB Emmett Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs ($3,600)
The Chiefs will run the ball, with Walker getting most of the work. That said, Johnson did garner a 36% snap share in Week 1 and looked solid with his opportunities. He hit the hole hard, broke tackles, and moved the pile. While he finished with only 24 yards on eight carries, he also caught both of his targets for 44 yards. There’s a ton of upside here too if Walker gets hurt.
WR Keenan Allen, Indianapolis Colts ($5,600)
Allen caught all of his team-high six targets in Week 1. Unfortunately, he totaled only 32 yards for a measly 5.3 YPA. He did get a red-zone look, though. With Daniel Jones still recovering from an Achilles injury, Allen will likely lean on the short routes he runs. The upside isn’t high, but he could be PPR gold. Fine, that may be too much. Spray-on gold?
TE Noah Gray, Kansas City Chiefs ($3,000)
Gray caught only one pass for five yards in Week 1. It’s still the Travis Kelce show in Kansas City, and it will be for as long as he’s on the field. That said, Gray finished with a 55% snap share. And being on the field is half the battle.
