Andy Reid put Patrick Mahomes under center more often against Denver and tightened his formations around Kenneth Walker, who promptly rushed for 173 yards. Walker forced 16 missed tackles, according to Fantasy Points. I’d be asking rather a lot of him to repeat that; Reid can keep the formations, motion and greater variety of blocking schemes. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Chiefs vs. Colts prediction, preview
Against Indianapolis, he has particular reason to keep calling outside zone run schemes. Walker took 34.8% of his carries on those kind of runs Monday. The Baltimore Ravens used them 18 times against these same Colts for 112 yards and three touchdowns with King Henry running the rock. Baltimore does force defenders to account for Lamar Jackson as a runner, a complication I won’t pretend Reid can reproduce with Mahomes’ running threat off an ACL. Still, Patty used his legs last week to much ballyhoo. I still like Reid testing those linebackers laterally, one way or another.
Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has addressed their linebacker personnel, moving defensive communication duties from safety Cam Bynum to linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither, who knows this defense from his 72-game tenure. Indianapolis should thus be more poised to suffer the outside zone whiplash, although Reid’s increased use of motion will test how quickly Davis-Gaither can lead this unit against a colossus of offensive playcalling.
Mahomes should take good care with that secondary behind the Colts’ linebackers. Indianapolis played man on 46.9% of passing plays against Baltimore; since last season began, Mahomes has averaged 5.6 yards per attempt against man. With left tackle Josh Simmons still out, I understand the reluctance to lay points here. Walker needs to leave Mahomes manageable distances; on third-and-long against Sauce Gardner and this secondary, I’d prefer Indianapolis.
Jonathan Taylor, meanwhile, ran for 98 dominant yards against Baltimore. Denver’s backs averaged 4.9 yards per carry against Kansas City on Monday Night Football, though they had only 11 attempts. I’d hesitate to declare the Chiefs impregnable after that little work, and I believe this’ll be a pound-for-pound prize fight between JT and KWIII, all said and done.
Colts vs. Chiefs pick, best bet
Taylor’s rushing average does a lot of optics work to conceal how often Indianapolis gets into trouble on first down. After their opening touchdown drive against Baltimore, the Colts lost yardage on four of their next nine first-down plays and fumbled on another. Daniel Jones has to recover that distance through the air, almost always, and forcing Danny Dimes into high-stakes must-pass downs. And, to be honest, a lot of the slippages are Jones-induced. Against Kansas City last season running this same offense, he converted a first down or touchdown on just 19.4% of his attempts, his lowest rate as a Colt. DT Chris Jones, whom Ian Rapoport expects to play despite a calf injury, should get opportunities to rush him on those long-yardage downs.
I’m taking Kansas City -5.5. Taylor should keep Indianapolis competitive early. Over four quarters, I trust Reid and Walker to sustain more possessions than an offense repeatedly asking Daniel Jones to recover from first-down losses. I’ll lay less than a touchdown on that difference, with Kansas City pulling ahead as Indianapolis faces more obvious passing situations.
Best bet: Chiefs -5.5 (-110).
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Colts 20.
