We’re three weeks into the college football season, right around the time where the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. With the start of conference play for plenty of schools across the country, an upset or two might be in store for CFB fans this weekend. Which favorites are most at risk of getting blindsided by an underdog?
Let’s break down two plus money picks on DraftKings Sportsbook that could pull off an upset on Saturday.
Best CFB Upset Picks for Week 3
Mississippi State ML (+150) at South Carolina
Don’t look now, but Mississippi State might have turned a corner. The Bulldogs, an afterthought for all of 2025, are rebuilding their identity on offense. Much of the credit goes to budding superstar Kamario Taylor. It’s too early to even whisper Heisman, but the quarterback has been spectacular this season. Through two games, the sophomore has thrown for an SEC-best 581 yards, ran for 145 more, and racked up eight total touchdowns. To be clear, this Bulldogs scoring attack isn’t a one man show. The team ran roughshod over Minnesota last weekend, churning out a whopping 252 rushing yards. Doing that against any squad, let alone on the road vs. a Big Ten opponent, deserves praise.
That’ll be the challenge facing a stellar Gamecocks defense. If there’s a lone weakness for this group, it’s generating pressure. They only managed to record 21.0 sacks in 2025, tied for second-fewest in the SEC. Despite holding its own against the run, South Carolina needs to frustrate opposing passers. Failure to do so against a quarterback such as Taylor could make or break this game.
As for Mississippi State’s defense, slowing down LaNorris Sellers could prove difficult. The junior is one of the nation’s most talented quarterbacks. He’s supported by a rushing attack averaging the nation’s fifth-most yards per carry (8.5). However, that’s come against lackluster competition in Kent State and Towson. Mississippi State’s run defense was a joke in 2025, but head coach Jeff Lebby has done a solid job turning things around in that regard. MSU is only giving up 2.75 yards per carry this season. With 70% of the moneyline backing South Carolina on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bulldogs make sense today from a value perspective. Given how good Taylor has been, there may not be a ton of opportunities to back him at +150 odds.
FIU ML (+200) at FAU
The Shula Bowl resumes this weekend in Boca Raton. Florida Atlantic (1-1) isn’t exactly a powerhouse; they lost to Florida by a score of 66-21 in Week 1. Still, there’s a level of cache involved with being a program in the American Conference. It helps that the Owls roster one of the better Group of Six passers in Caden Veltkamp. Through two games, the senior has thrown for a conference-best six touchdowns while completing an impressive 72.6% of his pass attempts. That includes a 386-yard, five-touchdown masterpiece last Saturday vs. Navy.
With that being said, Veltkamp has one notable weakness: turnovers. He handed the ball away twice to the Gators to start the season, and led the AAC with 17 interceptions last season. FIU’s secondary isn’t great, but it is opportunistic; the team snagged 12 picks last season, fifth-most in Conference USA. The Golden Panthers also held opposing passers to a respectable 7.1 yards per attempt; that number has dropped to 5.9 in 2026. It’s not as if Veltkamp has much support either; FAU is only generating 2.7 yards per rush attempt.
In many ways, these two teams mirror one another. Florida International also relies heavily on its quarterback, App State transfer J.J. Kohl. The Golden Panthers are averaging 117.0 rushing yards per game, third-fewest in CUSA. However, the biggest difference between these two squads comes on the other side of the ball. Florida Atlantic has gotten absolutely decimated through the air, allowing 10.0 yards per pass attempt. The Owls allowed a mediocre 235.2 passing yards per game last season as well. FIU, at the very least, has shown it can keep Veltkamp in check. Look no further than last season’s matchup, in which the Panthers earned a 38-28 victory at Pitbull Stadium. FAU’s QB put up impressive passing numbers, but he also coughed up three interceptions. Another sloppy performance would give the visitors a massive advantage tonight.
