The Jets are visiting the Titans on Sunday for a Week 1 matchup. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Tennessee is favored by 1.5 points and this game carries a total of 38.5 points.
Below, I break down my favorite Garrett Wilson prop bet for Sunday’s matchup, focusing on his receiving yards line against the Titans.
Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop Bet vs. Titans
Garrett Wilson O 10.5 First-Quarter Receiving Yards (-110)
Wilson only played in seven games last season due to knee injuries, but he was an elite target earner in those contests, leading the Jets with a 30.4% target share, which ranked second only to the Offensive Player of the Year in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Wilson was especially fed targets in the first quarter, seeing a colossal 42.9% target share in the first period, which was the highest first-quarter target share in the league.
Wilson averaged 16.1 first-quarter receiving yards per game and he posted at least 18 yards in the first quarter in 4-of-7 games. Wilson did this with Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, and now, Geno Smith will be under center for the Jets.
While Smith is coming off a poor season with the Raiders, averaging 6.8 YPA, Fields and Taylor were much worse, averaging 6.2 and 5.8 YPA, respectively. Smith only played in one preseason game, but he looked great, completing all seven of his attempts for 65 yards and a touchdown. The veteran finished as PFF’s seventh-highest graded quarterback for the preseason and as expected, Wilson was Smith’s favorite target during training camp.
For the team drills that the Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt charted, Wilson led New York with 42 targets, which was easily ahead of Adonai Mitchell, who ranked second with 27. The Jets severely lack viable pass catchers outside of Wilson and he should once again be one of the league leaders in target share.
Wilson should get peppered with targets early and often in this season opener vs. the Titans and he should have no problems clearing 10.5 receiving yards in the first quarter. Last season, Tennessee yielded the second-most yards per pass (7.6) and the fourth-most yards to receivers (2,814).
