David Montgomery goes from sharing the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit to a featured role in Houston. Let’s breakdown his Week 1 rushing yards prop vs. the Bills.
David Montgomery rushing yards pick vs. Bills
With the absence of Joe Mixon in 2025, the Texans were forced to scramble at running back. They went with a combination of Nick Chubb, a shell of himself after all the serious injuries, and Woody Marks. Chubb was featured more earlier in the season, but once he broke down, Marks took over the lead role.
Despite running behind a shaky offensive line, Chubb cleared the 55-yard rushing bar three times, and Marks did it eight times. The Texans made a point to improve both the RB room and the OL, both to improve the running game and better protect C.J. Stroud. Aside from adding three new starters to the OL, Houston went out and acquired Montgomery from the Lions.
Even playing in the RB2 role behind one of the most explosive backs in the league, Montgomery rushed for over 700 yards in 2025. He ran for 55 or more yards in five games last season. Now he’s the featured RB1 in Houston, and should put up even bigger numbers.
The matchup should bode well for the Texans to give us a heavy dose of Montgomery in his debut. The Bills ranked 28th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed last season — including 16 carries for 74 yards from Marks when these teams played in November.
Buffalo also ranked 30th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed, so Montgomery is a solid pick to reach the end zone in Week 1 as well. However, I’m focusing on the yardage here and backing him to go over his rushing yard prop in Sunday afternoon’s matchup against the Bills.
NFL Pick: David Montgomery OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
For more NFL Week 1 picks, check out my best bets cheat sheet at DraftKings Network.
