The injury bug is sweeping through the NBA, and the Oklahoma City Thunder have been hit the hardest. In the last week, they’ve lost Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace to long-term injuries that will likely sideline them for the season. On top of that, Alex Caruso sprained his ankle and will miss a couple of weeks depending on the healing. The title favorites are beat up and limping into this one, but they’ve won with their backs against the wall before. Can they handle business against the Mavericks? Or will this upstart Dallas team pull off the home upset?
The Thunder enter as 5.5-point favorites with the game total set at 227.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into my prediction and best bet for this Western Conference matchup.
Thunder vs. Mavericks Preview
We’ve already talked about some of the injuries, but both teams have racked up a serious list of casualties so far. In addition to Williams, Wallace, and Caruso being out, the Thunder will also be without Chet Holmgren (knee), Thomas Sorber (knee), and Nikola Topic (back). Ajay Mitchell is also questionable as of this writing with an ankle injury. At a certain point, they’re just running out of bodies: up to eight players on their roster could be out tonight.
Dallas isn’t doing much better on the injury front. Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Sergio de Larrea, and Tarik Biberovic have already been ruled out for Wednesday night. Naji Marshall also popped up on the injury report and is doubtful with an illness. They’ll also have to monitor Kyrie Irving and Caleb Martin, who are both banged up and questionable for this game. At least they have Cooper Flagg back from his shoulder injury scare, and he looks like nothing ever happened.
We’ll have the two main stars here, Flagg and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, shouldering heavy offensive loads tonight, but who else do we have out there? Isaiah Hartenstein will take on an extra burden as Oklahoma City’s lead big man, and head coach Mark Daigneault may also ask Jaylin Williams and Aday Mara for extra minutes. Jared McCain won’t hesitate to shoot and will play a big role regardless of Mitchell’s status. I’d also keep an eye on Bennett Stirtz; this is a good night for the rookie to get major offensive usage.
Dallas has more depth to lean on this year than they did last year. Core members like PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford can soak up minutes, but the offseason roster turnover has paid off. Zaccharie Risacher, who they acquired in a salary dump, has played a big defensive role early on. Marcus Sasser, another unwanted piece from a playoff contender, has stepped into quality bench minutes. It’s a shame to not see de Larrea tonight, but fellow rookie Morez Johnson Jr. gets a big test here. I’m also interested to see what Walter Clayton Jr. can provide for this team after bouncing around during his first year in the league.
So much is about competent depth here. With half the presumed starters for these teams out, or more depending on the questionable/doubtful tags, it comes down to who can help the superstars. SGA certainly doesn’t need much help offensively, but someone has to keep the motor running while he’s on the sideline and knock down the open threes he creates. Flagg needs someone to handle ball pressure and knock down shots while he finds his spots all over the floor. And on both sides, these depth players being asked to step up will have a lot of pressure on their shoulders.
All the injuries cast a cloud over this matchup, and only one team can shine through. So, who will it be?
Thunder vs. Mavericks Pick, Best Bet
It’s very, very weird to see the Thunder as such slim favorites in this kind of matchup. And yes, the injuries are devastating, but no team in the league is better prepared to handle them. SGA is the best player you could want to win any given game and he has solid enough support in the lineup. I’m counting on the regular season machine to keep churning out wins despite their bad fortune.
