This one’s for all the marbles. Forget the drama about the start time and the narratives surrounding the league: all that matters is two teams going head-to-head with the season on the line. The Golden State Valkyries have flipped the script on this series, going from down 2-1 to up 3-2, and now they have a chance to close it out on the road. Can the Atlanta Dream defend home court one last time and keep their championship hopes alive? Or will the Golden State Valkyries coat the walls of State Farm Arena in champagne?
The Dream enter as 4.5-point home favorites with the game total set at 147.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Valkyries vs. Dream Preview
This series has somehow felt like it’s lasted a lifetime, with several dramatic turns along the way. Game 1 was a real rock fight, and the Valkyries took it 68-64, setting the tone for a nasty series. Atlanta’s offense bounced back in Game 2 with a 79-65 win, then blew the doors off Golden State in Game 3, winning by 26 points. A 2-1 margin in a best-of-seven series doesn’t feel that crushing, but after watching those two Atlanta wins, they felt unstoppable. Angel Reese, in particular, was absurd, seemingly crowning herself Finals MVP with her standard of play.
But the Valkyries said no: we are not going out like that, and Reese won’t define this series. They locked her up in Game 4, holding the DPOY to 2-for-12 shooting while forcing her to commit six turnovers. That made all the difference in a tight 67-62 Golden State win. The same story played out in Game 5: Reese scored seven points on 2-of-8 shooting while the Dream posted a season-low 55 points and lost. And thus, the tables were turned.
If you haven’t noticed, it’s all about the defense here. Atlanta is 2-0 in the series when they score 70+ points, and 0-3 otherwise. Somehow, the Valkyries have only scored 70+ points once, and it was in their worst loss of the series. The Dream and Valkyries have offensive ratings of 94.7 and 88.4, respectively; the Connecticut Sun had a 97.8 ORTG in the regular season, the league’s worst mark. The margins have never mattered more; that extra rebound or deflected pass will make all the difference.
Atlanta’s biggest focus is the backcourt. Allisha Gray, fighting through a hand injury, has gone ice cold. She’s shooting 28.1% for the series and scoring only 12 PPG, a far cry from her regular-season 19 PPG. It’s been even worse in the last two losses, where Gray has 15 combined points on 5-of-19 shooting. If she can’t score, Atlanta cannot keep her on the floor, and head coach Karl Smesko will have some tough calls to make.
Jordin Canada has had her issues as well, but on the other end of the floor. Golden State sets screens only to force defenders to switch and guard different matchups. Canada, always the shortest player on the floor, has often been the target of those switches. They want to put Gabby Williams, Cecilia Zandalasini, and Janelle Salaün on an island with Canada and let them work. In a series with margins this tight, anything Atlanta can do to stop the Valkyries from generating those opportunities will be vital.
Golden State has to worry about Williams. She’s been lights-out defensively the past two games, but efficiency has abandoned her. The Valkyries All-Star has scored only 26 points in the past two games, shooting 10-of-35 from the field and missing all ten three-point attempts. The aggression is welcome, and she refuses to turn the ball over, but some shots will have to fall if the Valkyries want to close this one out. You can’t rely on winning this often while scoring 60 points.
So, who will win this Game 6 fistfight?
Valkyries vs. Dream Pick, Best Bet
My winner? The scoreboard operator. Nobody has an easier job in State Farm Arena on Thursday; this series has gone under the projected total of 147.5 points in four out of five games. I fully expect them to make it 5-for-6, and for the Valkyries to keep this one awfully close. It’s hard to build a big lead when nobody can score.
