The NFL is back, baby! The 2026 regular season kicked off with two games earlier in the week, building up to the full Sunday slate to really get Week 1 going. The biggest matchup of the day happens to be in the early window down south as the Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills for a showdown between AFC contenders.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Bills vs. Texans in NFL Week 1 on Sunday.
Bills vs. Texans prediction, preview
Get the popcorn ready – what a game this should be, folks. Both of these teams made it two rounds deep in the playoffs last year and have been postseason contenders in the last three consecutive seasons. They’ve loaded up a little bit at positions of need, too, so this could very well end up a clash between titans.
The Bills moved on from Sean McDermott this offseason and promoted former coordinator Joe Brady to serve as the new head coach. Not a bad move, all things considered, but it’s one that raises questions of how much will actually change moving forward. Now, it’s clear as day that this is a playoff team as long as Josh Allen remains healthy – a prolific run game has been one of the NFL’s most efficient in recent years behind the former MVP-winning quarterback and backfield talent James Cook. The limitations in the past have been a lack of a true standout receiving weapon, instead distributing the ball to a range of names like Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and more. After trading for wideout D.J. Moore, the hope in Buffalo is that Allen can recapture some of the magic he used to show when throwing to Stefon Diggs.
There are more drastic changes on the other side of the ball with the introduction of defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, who gets to try and turn around a unit that was one of the NFL’s softest against the run last year but excelled against the pass. The Bills are expected to pivot to a 3-4 base and brought in Bradley Chubb to compliment Ed Oliver up front, among other talent.
Much like the Bills, the Texans remain one of two real threats to win their own division and are expecting double-digit wins once again. After all, how could they not – the defense is undoubtedly one of the three best in the NFL thanks to a long list of star-caliber names like Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter on the edge, plus Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter in the secondary. They shored up a couple of other positions and have more depth than just about anyone on that side of the ball, whether that be in the front seven’s waves of pass rushers or the back half. As long as they’re living up to the expectations of the last couple years, Houston is in the mix to win any game.
The offense was much shakier over the previous two seasons, though. C.J. Stroud has rarely looked like the rookie version of himself that took the league by storm, though the situation arguably hasn’t been the greatest. The lack of a run game has been a major problem recently, but the team traded for David Montgomery, who’s the best halfback they’ve rostered since Joe Mixon. Nico Collins, Dalton Shultz and new addition Kayshon Boutte are a nice group of pass-catchers, though the Texans do lack a real second star to compliment their alpha receiver. Of course, the offensive line has to play better this year as well – there have been some changes there, but whether the trenches actually improve is an unknown as of now.
Bills vs. Texans pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Bills as a -1.5 road favorite against the spread with -118 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Texans are a -102 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 44.5 combined points.
The betting odds indicate a virtual toss-up in this contest, which is hardly a surprise given the caliber of competition. Both franchises should find themselves firmly in the playoff mix again this year and have a lot of things going for them. Plus, they each took steps to clean up clear weaknesses that have held them back from their ceilings – the weak defensive front for Buffalo and the lack of a ground game on offense for Houston. How those two units match up will actually be one of the most interesting subplots to follow in this game, but Montgomery will likely need support from the big guys in front of him to really get much going.
Their own defense should have the upper hand on Sunday, too. Last time they faced the Bills last year, the Texans won 23-19 behind a stunning eight sacks on Josh Allen. A repeat of that beating he took is unlikely, but he’ll certainly be on the move plenty in the rematch and is likely to be taken down at least a couple of times. Forcing him into costly turnovers is going to be the key for Houston, but given the ferocity of the defense, I do think there’s a clear avenue to win this game outright in front of the home crowd as long as Stroud doesn’t make too many mistakes of his own. If the Texans’ rushing attack looks better this year, the offense should take a step forward from the inconsistencies which ultimately did them in during past postseason runs, making life easier on their quarterback as well. For that reason, I’m taking the home team here.
