Oklahoma at Michigan (Saturday – 12pm ET)
Here’s something we saw in Week 1 that I’m saying is for real — Michigan’s offense is in big trouble.
The Wolverines are the finish everyone is talking about from Week 1. The game was lost as a four-touchdown favorite at home to Western Michigan. Controversially, a second was put back on the clock, and the rest is history.
We had a GOTY line on this Week 2 matchup on the board all summer at DraftKings. It was priced Michigan -2.5. After the Wolverines’ performance in their opener, they are now a 5.5-point home underdog. The spread touched as high as Michigan +6 before there was buy back.
So is this a Week 1 overreaction? I don’t think it was. Sure, Michigan probably overlooked Western Michigan in the game. But with the Wolverines leading 7-6 at halftime, you’d think they would’ve woken up. Outside of the Hail Mary that won the game, Michigan didn’t score in the second half.
Enter an Oklahoma defense that was among the nation’s elite last season, and projects as even more dangerous in 2026. The Sooners hosted the Wolverines in Norman in Week 2 last season, and things did not go well for Bryce Underwood. It was his first start in a major college atmosphere, and Michigan was shutout in the first half. Oklahoma went on to win the game 24-13.
The leap heading into his second season as the starting QB for Michigan was not there last Saturday night. Underwood led the Wolverines down the field for a 75-yard touchdown drive on the first possession of the game. It was a scripted drive that resulted in a fourth down rushing touchdown for by the QB.
Underwood was 5-for-5 passing on Michigan’s opening drive for 61 yards. His last pass of the night was the 47-yard Hail Mary that won the game. In the nearly 55 minutes of game clock between those two events, Underwood was 6-for-16 passing for 62 yards and an interception that was nearly returned for a touchdown … against Western Michigan.
Good luck cleaning that up against Brent Venables and the Sooners.
Now Michigan should be the real deal on the defensive side of the ball. It really gave up just six points to WMU on two field goals that the defense was responsible for, with Underwood’s turnovers generating the rest of the points on a short field. I’m not calling for John Mateer and OU to come into the Big House and light up the scoreboard. But it’s a very capable offense with a dual threat QB and solid weapons. We saw an extreme version of that in the Sooners’ 51-0 win over UTEP.
Oklahoma has an extra day to prepare for this one, having played its Week 1 game on Friday night. Even if we call the defenses even in this game, the Sooners have a massive QB advantage that overtakes the value of home field here.
After debating different ways to bet this one with the big adjustment to the spread, I settled on a couple of ways. Oklahoma Halftime/Fulltime, essentially the double result market to lead at halftime and win the game. But Michigan’s defense is going to show up in this game. I don’t trust Underwood and the Wolverines to score, but the Sooners won’t be running this up in a blowout. I’ll play an ALT under with OU ML in a Same Game Parlay.
CFB Pick: Oklahoma Halftime/Fulltime (-110)
CFB Pick: Oklahoma ML/UNDER 51.5 (-105)
