Soccer is all about rivalries, and perhaps the most noteworthy of all is the Manchester Derby. The city of 2.8 million people in North West England is a hotspot in the world’s most popular game, as Manchester United and Manchester City have combined for 30 total titles in England’s top flight.
The two Manchester teams, who finished second and third in the 2025/26 table, will face off for the first time this season at 11:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. local) on Sunday at Old Trafford.
The Sky Blues are +115 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim the pivotal three points, and the Red Devils are +205. A draw is available at +285.
Below, I’ll break down this much-anticipated intra-city showdown and provide my favorite bet.
Manchester United vs. Manchester City Best Bet:
- Man City Win and Both to Score (+235): With Youri Tielemans and Kobbie Mainoo forming a strong double pivot and arguably the world’s best No. 10, Bruno Fernandes, setting the table in front of them, United should definitely be expected to score against even City’s clinical defense. However, the Red Devils have allowed at least two goals in each of their Premier League games, and they allow too many high-quality shots to deny Erling Haaland.
Manchester United vs. Manchester City prediction, pick
Of the two Manchester clubs, City is off to the far more convincing start. The Sky Blues lost the Community Shield 3-0 to Arsenal, so their season hasn’t been perfect, but they’re one of just two teams (along with the Gunners) to take three wins from three matches in the Premier League, and they opened up their Champions League campaign with a gritty 2-0 away result at Porto. The Red Devils also opened the Champions League by claiming all three points, thrashing Azerbaijani debutants Sabah 4-0 at home on Thursday, but they’ve been less-than-stellar domestically, losing to newly-promoted Hull City in the most stunning result of the season so far and merely drawing with Everton after a late equalizer. It’s a long season, but City currently sits top of the table and United just 11th.
The Red Devils did some decent business during the offseason, bringing in a trio of midfielders in Carlos Baleba, Andrey Santos, and Youri Tielemans to complement 2025/26 Player of the Season Bruno Fernandes. They also brought back Marcus Rashford after his loan deal at Barcelona ended, strengthening an attack that already scored the third-most goals and attempted the most shots on target last season. So far, United has been dangerous going forward, as it’s managed the second-most expected goals from the most shots on target, and Bryan Mbeumo and Fernandes both rank in the league’s top six in expected goals individually. Furthermore, the Red Devils have completed passes at the fourth-highest rate overall and the third-highest rate in the final third, completing the second-most through balls and setting up the second-most touches in the box, but they haven’t finished all that clinically. More critically, United has been somewhat vulnerable in the back, conceding two goals in each of its matches despite giving up the sixth-fewest expected goals’ worth of chances overall. It’s also won a minority of its ground duels, and between the sticks, Senne Lammens has been a disaster, ranking eighth-to-last in goals prevented. The Red Devils have been disciplined, and they’ve forced plenty of high turnovers given how infrequently they press, but allowing the seventh-most expected goals per shot won’t cut it against a team as clinical as the Sky Blues.
Erling Haaland has been a man on a mission for City this season, netting thrice in the first three games and adding a brace in the Champions League. Additionally, Rayan Cherki has stepped up with two goals and two assists, and Antoine Semenyo has a pair of assists as well. Iliman Ndiaye, whose move from the Toffees on deadline day made him the most valuable Senegalese player ever, should also get on the score sheet sooner rather than later. The Sky Blues arguably weren’t as convincing as they could’ve been in one-goal wins over Bournemouth and Coventry City, but given that they’ve managed the fourth-most expected goals and been the best distributional team in England despite losing talisman Rodri, it’s hard to be too critical. Defensively, City has also been impressive; only Arsenal has allowed fewer expected goals, and the Sky Blues have allowed the fourth-fewest shots on target and the fifth-fewest expected goals per shot. New arrivals Marc Guéhi and Enzo Fernández have both won 71.4% of their ground duels, and the team as a whole is one of just five to have won a majority of its ground and aerial battles. The Sky Blues haven’t been great against set pieces, but they’ve been disciplined, and they’ve forced the sixth-most high turnovers. Gianluigi Donnarumma should have a massive advantage over Lammens between the sticks, for he ranks second in the league in goals prevented so far.
Even though City seems to easily be the more well-rounded team on paper, the Manchester Derby is never easy to predict. Each team picked up a win at home in 2025/26, and United actually won at the Etihad while drawing at home in 2024/25 despite finishing 15th in the league overall. However, the Sky Blues swept the series in 2023/24. Despite the Red Devils’ home advantage, I’m concerned about their defense; Lammens couldn’t have done much about either of Everton’s goals, but his positioning was questionable on both of the goals United conceded to Ipswich Town the weekend before. The Red Devils haven’t been good enough at playing the offsides trap to stop Haaland from making his signature runs. Fernandes’ singular brilliance should get United on the board, but I think City will keep the pressure on the Gunners.
