In each of his first 11 seasons in the NFL, Mike Evans recorded at least 1,000 receiving yards, and in nine of those seasons, he caught at least five touchdown passes. In his 12 seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Evans virtually guaranteed that he’ll be enshrined in Canton, Ohio after his playing career comes to an end.
Evans signed with the San Francisco 49ers during the offseason, swapping one shade of red for another. At 8:35 p.m. ET tonight (10:35 a.m. local on Friday), he’ll begin his49ers stint with a marquee Thursday Night Football battle against the Los Angeles Rams at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne, Australia.
Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite for tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (-198 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 48.5. San Francisco is +164 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down Evans’ touchdown-scoring prop for tonight’s much-anticipated matchup, the first-ever in Australia.
Mike Evans Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet vs. Rams
Mike Evans Anytime TD Scorer (+185)
Although he’s 33 years old now, Evans remains one of the NFL’s best red zone targets. He’s had six separate seasons with at least 10 receiving touchdowns, tied for the sixth-most in NFL history, and although he had only three scores in 2025 because injuries limited him to just eight games, the fact that he’d had at least 11 in four of his prior five healthy campaigns is promising. Injuries might just be part of his new normal — he missed most of the offseason program after suffering groin and quadriceps ailments — but he likely wouldn’t be on the field tonight if the 49ers didn’t have confidence that he was healthy.
Last season, Brock Purdy primarily targeted two players in the red zone, as running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Jauan Jennings combined to account for 53% of Purdy’s passes within the opposing 20-yard line, the highest of any pair of teammates. While McCaffrey is still on the team and should continue to account for a bulk of Purdy’s red-zone targets, Jennings departed in free agency, and San Francisco replaced him with Evans, rookie De’Zhaun Stribling, and Deebo Samuel. Samuel is a speedy but undersized slot receiver, while Stribling never scored more than six touchdowns in a season in his collegiate career and isn’t much of a jump-ball threat. Evans, a former basketball player who’s made a Hall of Fame career out of winning jump balls, should be an upgrade over Jennings with a similar play style.
Of course, it won’t be easy against the rebuilt Rams secondary. Los Angeles was torched by the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and responded by completely upending its secondary, trading a first-round pick for Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie and poaching his former teammate Jaylen Watson in free agency. Last season, McDuffie and Watson finished 18th and 33rd, respectively, by Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades; the Rams’ incumbent starters, Cobie Durant and Emmanuel Forbes, ranked 45th and 79th, respectively. Los Angeles allowed the 12th-most touchdowns to wideouts in 2025, but it should be better in 2026.
I like Evans’ ability to find paydirt anyway. In Week 4 of the 2022 season, Evans racked up eight catches, 103 yards, and two scores in a 41-31 loss to the Chiefs, catching all three of his targets for 23 yards and a score when guarded by Watson, a rookie at the time. McDuffie missed that game with a hamstring strain, but given that he’s just five-foot-11 and 193 pounds, he could have some trouble against the six-foot-five, 231-pound Evans. Purdy is one of the league’s best at throwing back-shoulder fades, a route that Evans thrives on.
